棉花、棉纱日报-20260106

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,955, up 215; trading volume was 9,463 lots, down 828; open interest was 76,464 lots, down 6181 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 14,855, up 200; trading volume was 394,159 lots, down 98,579; open interest was 915,854 lots, up 25,993 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 15,040, up 195; trading volume was 32,651 lots, down 12,617; open interest was 78,436 lots, up 6,406 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 20,250, down 225; trading volume was 32 lots, up 32; open interest was 378 lots, unchanged [2] - CY05 contract closed at 20,880, up 230; trading volume was 61 lots, down 22; open interest was 171 lots, up 7 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,695, down 90; trading volume was 1 lot, unchanged; open interest was 14 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 126; CY IndexC32S was 21,240 yuan, up 40 [2] - Cot A was 74.05 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 20,985 yuan, up 24 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 71.49; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 yuan, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 yuan, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 100, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was - 185, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was 85, down 20 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630, down 455; 5 - 9 spread was 185, up 320; 9 - 1 spread was 445, up 135 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,295, down 440; CY05 - CF05 was 6,025, up 30; CY09 - CF09 was 5,655, down 285 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,827, up 139; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,810, up 130; domestic - foreign yarn spread was 255, up 16 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 31, 2025, Pakistan's new cotton listing in 2025/26 reached 842,000 tons, almost the same year - on - year; textile mills purchased 757,000 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year; unsold new cotton was 85,000 tons, down 8.5% year - on - year [4] - As of December 30, 2025, ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 16.13% (up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.46 percentage points last week) [4] - As of December 27, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 25.1% complete, up 8.2 percentage points month - on - month, 0.1 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - Xinjiang Cotton Association's article confirms the rumor of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. Cotton sales are fast, and consumption is expected to increase due to improved Sino - US relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills [5] - China signed 20,000 tons of US cotton last week, providing upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price is supported by fundamental factors, but there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8][12] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure cotton yarn market is weak, with only rigid demand. Some factories have orders for 10 - 15 days. Yarn mills raised prices, but downstream acceptance is low [8] - The pure cotton grey fabric market is also weak. Dyeing factories are working on previous orders, and weavers find it difficult to get new orders before the Spring Festival [8] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Cotton's 10 - day HV was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. CF601 - C - 13400 implied volatility was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] - Options Strategy: Hold off [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][17][21][22]