玻璃供需格局好转，碱厂检修意愿增加

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Treat with an oscillating and slightly bullish mindset, with the glass index reference range of 1010 - 1150 [6] - Soda Ash: Adopt a bearish approach when the price is high, with the soda ash index reference range of 1100 - 1250 [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The supply has weakened, and attention should be paid to whether it can drive mid - and downstream replenishment, which may support the glass price in the short term [6]. - Soda Ash: The willingness of soda ash plants to conduct maintenance has increased, leading to a short - term decline in supply. However, there is still a long - term production capacity investment pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of December 31, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the end of November; in Central China, it was 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the end of November. The mainstream market glass prices are running weakly [12]. Supply - Currently, the glass price is falling, the glass factory profit is weakening, and the inventory is high, leading to continuous cold repairs. The current daily melting volume of glass factories is 151,500 tons. The supply - demand pattern has improved due to the weakening supply, which may support the price [18]. Demand - In real estate, in November 2025, the completed area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6363 million square meters; the sales area was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6805 million square meters. The year - end real estate completion has improved slightly, but the sales are poor, and the completion may be better than the previous period but worse than the same period last year [22]. - In the automotive industry, in November 2025, the automobile production was 3.5316 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.1729 million vehicles; the sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 0.1069 million vehicles, which supports the glass demand [26]. - The year - end rush - to - work demand has weakened month - on - month, the sales pressure in the north is obvious, and the glass demand is difficult to have a large upward space due to the weak real estate. The downstream deep - processing order days are still weak year - on - year, and the glass apparent demand is at a low level in the same period over the years [30]. Inventory - In December, although the demand was poor, the inventory pressure of glass factories was relieved and the inventory decreased due to the decline in supply. The inventory of mid - stream traders is at a high level, and the subsequent replenishment strength may be limited [34]. Profit and Cost - The costs of glass produced with natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke have declined, and the glass spot price has weakened. The profits of the three production methods have fluctuated. The profit of glass produced with natural gas decreased from - 227.27 yuan/ton to - 186.4 yuan/ton; with coal, from 4.5 yuan/ton to - 21.88 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, from - 31.48 yuan/ton to - 7.21 yuan/ton [38]. Basis - As of December 31, the glass 05 basis was - 87, a decrease of 16 compared to the end of November; the glass 5 - 9 contract spread was - 104, a decrease of 51 compared to the end of November. The spot price has weakened more, the basis has weakened, and the month - spread has weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market has a pessimistic view on the near - term contracts [42]. Soda Ash Price - As of December 31, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the end of November; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the end of November. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are running weakly [48]. Supply - The spot price of soda ash has weakened, and the willingness of soda ash plants to conduct maintenance has increased. The soda ash production in December decreased. There will be new production capacity put into operation in the first quarter of this year, so there is a large long - term supply pressure. Currently, the price is low, and the plants are in a loss state, so the short - term production is under pressure. It is expected that the weekly production of soda ash in January will fluctuate around 700,000 tons [52]. Demand - In December, the production of photovoltaic glass was stable, while the production of float glass decreased month - on - month. Currently, the profit of glass factories is poor, and there is an expectation of cold repairs for float glass in January, which puts pressure on the soda ash demand. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to weaken, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable [58]. Import and Export - In November 2025, the import volume of soda ash was 253 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84 tons; the export volume was 189,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,100 tons. The domestic soda ash supply - demand is loose, and exports will help relieve the inventory pressure of domestic soda ash plants [62]. Inventory - In December, the inventory of soda ash plants decreased month - on - month. Although there is still an expectation of glass production reduction, considering the price decline, the soda ash production will continue to run weakly and stably. It is expected that the inventory of soda ash plants will decline slightly in January, and attention should be paid to the maintenance of soda ash plants [65]. Cost - In December, the cost of soda ash was running weakly. The supply concentration of soda ash plants is high, and they have strong bargaining power. The cost support of the light soda ash co - production method in East China is around 1200 yuan, and attention should be paid to the cost support [69]. Profit - The price of soda ash is weak, and the cost is running weakly. The profits of soda ash plants fluctuate. In North China, using the ammonia - soda process, the gross profit of light soda ash decreased from - 38.5 yuan/ton to - 57.4 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash decreased from - 118.5 yuan/ton to - 137.4 yuan/ton. In East China, using the co - production method, the gross profit of light soda ash increased from - 140 yuan/ton to - 28.5 yuan/ton, and that of heavy soda ash increased from - 220 yuan/ton to - 88.5 yuan/ton [72]. Month - spread - As of December 31, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 87, a decrease of 20 compared to the end of November; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 65, an increase of 3 compared to the end of November. The spot price is running weakly, the basis has weakened, and the month - spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the market has a pessimistic view on the near - term contracts [76].