商业航天深度报告：技术收敛引爆奇点，蓝海市场破晓已至

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace industry [1] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector in China is transitioning from a "state-led" model to a "private-led, cost-prioritized" model, marking a significant shift in business dynamics [3] - The report identifies 2024-2025 as a pivotal period for the explosion of commercial aerospace in China, driven by the launch of national and commercial satellite constellations [3] - Four key technological convergences are driving a "cost revolution" in the industry, significantly reducing launch costs [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a policy-driven boom, with technological convergence leading to explosive demand across the supply chain [6][8] 2. Core Drivers - The report highlights four technological advancements: 1. Reusable launch vehicles reducing costs from $50,000/kg to $200/kg [4] 2. Liquid oxygen-methane as the next-generation fuel, enhancing reusability [4] 3. Industrialized manufacturing through 3D printing, reducing production time and costs [4] 4. Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components replacing expensive aerospace-grade chips, significantly lowering satellite costs [4] 3. Market Demand - The report anticipates a significant increase in launch demand, estimating a need for approximately 8,750 tons of launch capacity in China from 2026 to 2030, translating to a market potential of several hundred billion yuan [4] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-barrier, high-elasticity segments of the industry, including: 1. Engine manufacturing and materials like high-temperature alloys and titanium [4] 2. Satellite manufacturing, particularly in advanced components like phased array T/R modules [4] 3. Downstream applications, including high-performance antennas and baseband chips for consumer electronics [4] 5. Competitive Landscape - The report notes a dual-polarity competitive landscape between China and the U.S., with the industry moving towards maturity [6]