2026年通信行业年度投资策略：AI基建与应用加速，卫星互联趋势明显

Group 1 - The communication industry is transitioning from a traditional pipeline support role to becoming a core engine that empowers new productive forces [3][13] - Global ICT investment has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% from 2010 to 2020, and despite the pandemic, it maintained a CAGR of 6.7% in 2020 [5] - By 2023, the global ICT market investment is expected to reach approximately $4.9 trillion, with projections to grow to $6.6 trillion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 6.3% [5] Group 2 - The transition from 5G to 5G-A/6G is characterized by a shift from bandwidth growth to capability integration, emphasizing the importance of integrated sensing and computing [11][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on the large-scale deployment of 5G and the integration of computing networks, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" anticipates the emergence of AI-driven intelligent computing capabilities [14] - The deployment of low-orbit satellite internet constellations is breaking geographical limitations, enhancing communication capacity and reducing latency [18] Group 3 - The demand for computing power is becoming the main driver of growth in the ICT market, with the Chinese enterprise-level ICT market expected to reach approximately $751.76 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.5% [26] - The investment in enterprise-level servers and storage in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.3% from 2023 to 2028 [26] - AI model training is driving a significant increase in computing power demand, with the computational equivalent for training AI models increasing dramatically [30] Group 4 - The capital expenditure of major Chinese telecom operators is expected to continue increasing, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom projected to spend approximately ¥1,640 billion, ¥935.1 billion, and ¥613.7 billion respectively in 2024 [35] - The capital expenditure of these operators is shifting towards intelligent computing, with significant increases in their self-owned computing power [36] - The overseas cloud service providers are also increasing their capital expenditure, with a total of approximately $111.9 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 78.8% [36] Group 5 - The AI applications are expected to penetrate various sectors, with the emergence of AI-native applications and embodied intelligence reshaping interaction paradigms [65][67] - The market for humanoid robots is anticipated to grow significantly, with commercial applications expected to accelerate in both industrial and service sectors [73][76] - The integration of AI in industrial applications is addressing labor shortages and enhancing operational efficiency, with robots capable of replacing multiple skilled workers [81]