农产品早报2026-01-07：五矿期货农产品早报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar - cane for sugar production. International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. In China, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited [4]. - Cotton: The market has long anticipated the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The Zhengzhou cotton price has reached a recent high, and price fluctuations may increase. Fundamentally, the off - season is not weak, the downstream operating rate has increased year - on - year. Although there is a domestic increase in production, imports are restricted, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [8]. - Protein Meal: The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but the negative crushing margin supports the price, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - Oils: The current high production and weak exports in palm oil - producing areas have led to high inventories. Domestic inventories of the three major oils are also at a relatively high level, with weak fundamentals. However, the negative soybean crushing margin provides some support. In the long - term, the total consumption of oils for bio - diesel in the US in 2026 may increase significantly. Overall, the oil prices may be close to the bottom range [17]. - Eggs: The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply is still large. But due to the late Spring Festival, the stocking sentiment remains, and the expectation of capacity reduction due to continuous losses also exists. The short - term downward space for spot prices is limited, and the upward space is also limited. The futures market has priced in the post - festival price drop and future capacity reduction to some extent, with limited short - term drivers. From a valuation perspective, focus on shorting after a rebound [20]. - Pigs: Low prices stimulate consumption, the late Spring Festival leads to postponed demand, and the structural shortage of large pigs have jointly caused an unexpected rebound in pig prices. The short - term logic for the strong pig prices remains solid, but over time, the structural contradiction is expected to be gradually resolved, and prices may return to the logic of overall oversupply. In the medium - term, the logic supporting the strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. It is advisable to focus on the upside pressure of contracts in the off - season and short on rebounds. In the long - term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of the year, and pay attention to the downside support of far - month contracts [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Quotes: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The closing price of the May contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups and processing sugar mills all increased. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 41 yuan/ton [2]. - Production and Sales Data: As of January, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production was 194 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 11.96%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.85 percentage points; cumulative sugar sales were 88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, single - month production was 180 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43 million tons; single - month sales were 79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55 million tons; industrial inventory was 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6 million tons. Yunnan's cumulative sugar production was 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 11.34%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.28 percentage points. Cumulative sugar sales were 28.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 71.72%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.98 percentage points. In December, single - month sales were 24.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 million tons; industrial inventory was 11.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons [3]. Cotton - Market Quotes: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract was 14855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 856 yuan/ton [6]. - Export and Inventory Data: As of the week of December 25, the US current - year cotton export sales were 3.11 million tons, and the cumulative export sales were 151.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.27 million tons; the export to China was 0.24 million tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.55 million tons. As of the week of January 2, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, flat compared with the previous week and 4.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 529 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10 million tons [6]. Protein Meal - Market Quotes: On Tuesday, protein meal futures prices continued to rebound. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2776 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.8% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2390 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.23% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Dongguan soybean meal price was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the soybean meal main contract was 324 yuan/ton; the Huangpu rapeseed meal price was 2520 yuan/ton, flat from the previous trading day, and the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 130 yuan/ton [10]. - Export and Inventory Data: As of the week of December 25, US soybean exports were 118 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons from the previous week; the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 2770 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1185 million tons; the export to China was 40 million tons that week, a decrease of 22 million tons from the previous week; the current - year cumulative export to China was 642 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1182 million tons. As of the week of January 2, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 225 million tons, an increase of 108 million tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53 million tons. The sample oil mill operating rate was 50.75%, a year - on - year increase of 0.14 percentage points; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 106 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45 million tons [11]. Oils - Market Quotes: On Tuesday, oil futures prices showed a strong - side fluctuation. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7912 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9130 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil price was 8460 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the soybean oil main contract was 548 yuan/ton; the Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil price was 8570 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the palm oil main contract was 70 yuan/ton; the Jiangsu rapeseed oil price was 9900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 770 yuan/ton [14]. - Inventory and Production Data: A market estimate shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high of 297 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November. In November, Malaysia's palm oil production was 193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.38%; exports were 121 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.45%; the ending inventory was 284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.43%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil production (CPO + PPO) was 476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%; exports were 280 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%; the ending inventory was 233 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.75%. As of the week of January 2, the domestic inventory of the three major oils was 208 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20 million tons and a decrease of 2 million tons from the previous week [15]. Eggs - Market Quotes: The national egg prices mostly rose yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.13 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. The supply is basically normal, the digestion speed in some markets has slightly improved, and industry players are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that today's egg prices may be stable or rising [19]. Pigs - Market Quotes: Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued the pattern of being strong in the north and weak in the south, with mixed rises and falls. The average price in Henan increased by 0.13 yuan to 12.85 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained flat at 12.74 yuan/kg. The demand for large pigs is good, the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers is average, the supply of pigs is tight, and the downstream has difficulty in low - price procurement. Today's pig prices may continue to be strong [22].