Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [2]. - Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. - The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. - Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. It is recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, futures positions, and seat changes [18]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the cost - performance of chasing long positions is not high. If there is no actual production reduction, one can wait for an opportunity to short near - month contracts at high prices [21]. - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan for 2026 to set a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices drove stainless steel prices to continue to strengthen. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promotes the rise of raw material prices and accelerates inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the supply quota of nickel ore is clearly tightened in the future, prices may rise further. It is recommended to consider going long at low prices and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and with continuous supply - side disturbances, there is strong price support, while demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Quotes: Offshore RMB appreciated, the domestic equity market rose, and copper prices continued to rise. On January 6, LME copper 3M closed up 1.28% to $13,254/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 104,600 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, mainly from Asia. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warrants of SHFE increased by 0.3 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai shifted to a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was poor due to the rising price. The spot in Guangdong had a premium of 15 yuan/ton to the futures, the inventory increased month - on - month, and downstream consumption weakened. The loss of SHFE copper spot imports narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 6,100 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The marginal easing direction of liquidity in the US financial market remains unchanged, domestic policies offer mild stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances enhance the importance of strategic resources, so the sentiment is still relatively favorable. The tight supply of copper mines and US tariff expectations strongly support copper prices, but as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed out, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall, the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract on January 7 is 102,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,500/ton [2]. Aluminum - Market Quotes: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. On January 6, LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $3,133/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,695 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 34,000 to 746,000 lots, and the futures warrants increased by 0.1 tons to 84,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots in three regions increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China had a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream procurement was cautious. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.3 tons to 504,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a discount [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Amid overseas geopolitical factors, precious metals and copper prices are expected to remain high, which will still drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream开工, the relatively low overseas aluminum inventory and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract on January 7 is 24,100 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - 3,170/ton [5]. Lead - Market Quotes: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.74% to 17,532 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 101,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose by $13 to $2,033/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,350 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 74,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $45.52/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $106.8/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.238, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 471.61 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 18,900 tons [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the operating rate of primary lead remains relatively high, the scrap lead inventory continues to decline, the smelting profit of recycled lead is still at a relatively high level in the past six months, and the operating rate of recycled smelting has slightly rebounded. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has declined marginally, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has stopped falling and stabilized. Currently, domestic lead prices are approaching the upper edge of the oscillation range, with a high concentration of long - position funds. In the short term, the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector is high, and lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8]. Zinc - Market Quotes: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.01% to 24,328 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 230,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose by $66 to $3,238.5/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 231,300 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 110 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 30 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 40,800 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 7,900 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $36.3/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $58/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio of the disk was 1.081, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,244.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 5,300 tons to 114,000 tons [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of zinc ore has declined, the TC of zinc concentrate has declined again but at a slower pace, and the smelting profit of zinc has stopped falling and stabilized. The total domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased. After a large number of registered warrants appeared on the LME, the Shanghai - London ratio has continued to rise. After the winter stockpiling ends, the domestic supply of zinc ore may become more abundant. In the double - easing cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is mostly bullish. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term and run strongly in the short term following the non - ferrous sector [10]. Tin - Market Quotes: On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 348,820 yuan/ton, up 4.32% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating conditions of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan were generally stable at a high level. Specifically, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained at 87.09%, basically the same as last week. However, the tin ore processing fee in Yunnan was still at a low level, and the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises still existed, with insufficient further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin continued to be at a low level. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer electronics demand entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but supported by orders from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers, the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network data, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the spot market, downstream solder and electronic enterprises mostly adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the purchasing willingness was weak. In terms of inventory, tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. As of December 31, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,309 tons, a decrease of 1,058 tons from the previous Friday [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the current demand in the tin market is weak and there is an expectation of improved supply, with low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk preferences. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12]. Nickel - Market Quotes: On January 6, nickel prices rose significantly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.25% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $51.37/wet ton, the same as the previous day; the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore was $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was $52.7/ton, the same as last week. In terms of nickel iron, prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 935 yuan/nickel point, with an average increase of 5.5 yuan/nickel from the previous day [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Currently, the surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but due to Indonesia's claim to reduce RKAB quotas and the proposed tax on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has weakened. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for SHFE nickel prices is 110,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $13,000 - 18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Quotes: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 133,021 yuan, up 7.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 132,200 - 134,800 yuan, with an average increase of 9,150 yuan (+7.36%) from the previous working day; the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 130,000 - 131,000 yuan, with an average increase of 7.94% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 137,940 yuan, up 6.12% from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,750 yuan [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: On Tuesday, the market environment was bullish, and non - ferrous and precious metal - related varieties rose significantly. There were occasional disturbances in the supply news of lithium carbonate. Although the substantial impact was limited, the bullish sentiment was high, and the upward trend continued. In the first quarter, the maintenance of lithium - battery materials extended to the electrolyte end, and the price increase of lithium iron phosphate was gradually being realized. The in - the - money
五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-1-7-20260107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:02