Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, with some sectors showing upward trends while others face uncertainties. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index has a long - term bullish outlook, but the bond market may be under pressure. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - Market Information: The Ministry of Commerce strengthened export controls on dual - use items to Japan, the central bank established a liquidity mechanism for non - bank institutions, and regulators investigated some wealth management companies. NVIDIA's new AI platform was introduced [2]. - Strategy: Long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips as institutional funds are expected to flow back into the market and policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. Bond - Market Information: Bond prices generally declined on Tuesday. The central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan. The auto industry's production and sales reached a new high in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of domestic sales [5]. - Strategy: The bond market may face pressure due to improved economic expectations, but the sustainability of economic recovery is uncertain. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the first quarter, mainly affected by the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rose due to dovish statements from Fed officials. COMEX gold reached $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver reached $81.22 per ounce [7]. - Strategy: Precious metals may face short - term corrections but are still in an upward cycle in the long run. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid opening new long or short positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver provided [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Copper prices continued to rise. LME copper inventories increased, and domestic spot copper showed different price trends in different regions. The import loss of Shanghai copper narrowed, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [10]. - Strategy: The sentiment is favorable, and the supply of copper mines is tight, providing strong support for copper prices. However, as prices rise, downstream demand is squeezed, and the upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices were strong. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai aluminum increased, and domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends. The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the market's wait - and - see sentiment was strong [12]. - Strategy: Affected by overseas geopolitical factors and low overseas inventories, aluminum prices are expected to continue to be volatile and strong [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose. The inventory of zinc mines decreased, the TC of zinc concentrates declined, and the profit of zinc smelting stabilized. The domestic inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the ratio of Shanghai to London zinc increased [14][16]. - Strategy: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and follow the upward trend of the non - ferrous metals sector in the short term [16]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rose. The inventory of lead mines increased, the profit of secondary lead smelting was relatively high, and the inventory of domestic lead ingots stabilized. The price of domestic lead is close to the upper limit of the shock range [17]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term due to the strong sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rose sharply. The spot premium of nickel increased, and the price of nickel ore remained stable. The price of nickel pig iron continued to rise [18]. - Strategy: Although the surplus pressure of nickel is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and reference price ranges for Shanghai and London nickel are provided [18]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices rose. The smelting of tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable, but the supply of raw materials was tight. The demand for tin in emerging fields supported the industry, and the inventory of tin decreased [20]. - Strategy: The short - term price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium rose. The spot index and futures prices increased, and the production and sales of lithium - ion battery materials were positive [22]. - Strategy: The upward trend of carbonate lithium continues, but if the price remains high for a long time, demand may be under pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a small - position trial, and pay attention to market sentiment and futures positions [22]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina rose. The trading volume and positions increased, the basis decreased, and the inventory of futures decreased. The price of imported ore decreased [23]. - Strategy: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and if there is no actual production cut, consider short - selling when the price is high [25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of stainless steel rose. The spot price increased, the inventory decreased, and the price of raw materials such as nickel iron increased [26]. - Strategy: Driven by policy expectations and inventory reduction, stainless steel prices may continue to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and positions increased, the inventory decreased, and the price difference between contracts widened [28]. - Strategy: Supported by cost and supply factors, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coils decreased marginally [31]. - Strategy: Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The terminal demand recovery is slow, and the winter storage is cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the steel industry [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore rose. The overseas shipment decreased, the incoming volume increased, the iron - making output increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33][34]. - Strategy: The price of iron ore is expected to be volatile, with the upside limited by high inventory and loose supply expectations and the downside supported by restocking expectations. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills and iron - making production rhythm [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of glass rose, and the inventory decreased. The price of soda ash rose, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - Strategy: For glass, although the production capacity has decreased, the inventory is still sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. For soda ash, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short when the price is high in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose due to the news of differential electricity prices. The spot prices were stable or increased, and the basis was positive [38]. - Strategy: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the trading volume and positions increased. The price of polysilicon rose, and the trading volume and positions decreased [43][46]. - Strategy: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply is still loose. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to actual spot transactions and wind - control measures [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The price of rubber broke through the range and rose. The long and short sides have different views, and the tire production rate showed different trends [49][50]. - Strategy: Adopt a neutral strategy, conduct short - term trading, and partially close the hedging positions [53]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of crude oil and related refined products rose. The inventory of crude oil decreased, and the inventory of refined products increased [54]. - Strategy: Adjust the valuation of heavy - oil products to overweight, and expect the spread of asphalt or fuel oil to rise [55]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot prices of methanol showed different trends, and the futures price rose [56]. - Strategy: The valuation of methanol is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. It is advisable to go long on dips [57]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot prices of urea increased, and the futures price rose [58]. - Strategy: The fundamentals of urea are expected to be bearish, and it is advisable to take profits when the price is high [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene increased, and the inventory decreased [60]. - Strategy: The valuation of styrene has room for upward repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC rose. The production rate increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [62][63]. - Strategy: The supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [64]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The production rate increased, the inventory decreased slightly, and the profit showed different trends [65]. - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to the risk of rebound [66]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA rose. The production rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the processing fee showed different trends [67]. - Strategy: PTA is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. It is advisable to go long on dips in the medium term [68]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The price of para - xylene rose. The production rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the valuation increased [69]. - Strategy: Para - xylene is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. It is advisable to go long on dips in the medium term [70]. Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The prices of PE and PP rose. The production rate, inventory, and downstream demand showed different trends [71][73]. - Strategy: For PE, it is advisable to go long on the spread between LL5 - 9. For PP, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72][75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The price of live pigs was strong in the north and weak in the south. The supply was tight, and the demand was good [77]. - Strategy: The short - term pig price is strong, but the medium - term logic may collapse. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [78]. Eggs - Market Information: The price of eggs mostly rose. The supply was normal, and the market digestion improved slightly [79]. - Strategy: The short - term price of eggs has limited upside and downside. It is advisable to short - sell on rallies [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal rose. The soybean export and domestic inventory data showed different trends [81][82]. - Strategy: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, supported by the inverted crushing margin [82]. Oils - Market Information: The prices of oils were strong. The palm oil inventory was high, and the domestic three - major oils inventory was also at a relatively high level [83][84]. - Strategy: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The oil prices may be close to the bottom [85]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar was narrowly volatile. The domestic sugar production and sales data showed different trends [86][87]. - Strategy: The international sugar price may rebound after February. The short - term downside of domestic sugar prices is limited [88]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton rose. The export sales of US cotton decreased, and the domestic cotton inventory increased [89]. - Strategy: It is advisable to wait for a pull - back and then go long on cotton, considering the balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations [90].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026-01-07-20260107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:24