山金期货黑色板块日报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off-season of consumption, supply and demand are both weak, and winter storage is yet to come. With enhanced macro confidence and a strong stock market boosting market sentiment, futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading, and those with empty positions should avoid chasing up or selling down, instead adopting a volatile trading approach [3]. - For the iron ore sector, although the overall output of the five major steel products increased last week and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month, the market is still in the off-season, and molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The supply is at a high level, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. However, technically, the 05 contract is clearly supported by the 10-day moving average, and a medium-term upward trend is unfolding. It is recommended to hold long positions for medium-term trading [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, rebar and hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total output of the five major varieties rose month-on-month. Overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's continued to rise. Due to a significant drop in steel mill margins and the off-season, steel production may continue to decline. The recent sharp rebound in coking coal and coke futures prices has raised cost support for the market [3]. - Price and Spread: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures also changed. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was 74 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous value [3]. - Production and Operation: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, and the average daily molten iron output was 227.43 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.1%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils increased, while the capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.50% to 850.78 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 1.05% to 381.37 million tons. Rebar and hot-rolled coil social inventories decreased, while hot-rolled coil steel mill inventory increased [3]. - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 0.89% to 841.02 million tons. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot-rolled coil's increased [3]. Iron Ore - Demand: The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, and apparent demand rebounded month-on-month. However, in the off-season, molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. Steel mills' production cuts suppress raw material prices, and the pre-holiday restocking demand will come later this year [5]. - Supply: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [5]. - Price and Spread: Iron ore spot and futures prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads of iron ore futures also changed. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was -15 yuan/dry ton, up 25.5 yuan from the previous value [6]. - Shipping and Inventory: Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased. The arrival volume at the six northern ports increased by 13.70% to 1512.9 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.71% to 15970.89 million tons [6].