美国经济数据?软引发担忧，贵?属延续强势

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - Precious metals continued their strong performance during the day, with silver surging significantly and Shanghai gold returning above 1,000 yuan. The weakening US manufacturing PMI in December intensified economic concerns and strengthened the safe - haven support. It is expected that gold will maintain a relatively strong short - term trend, while the volatility risk of silver is increasing, and attention should be paid to position risks [1]. - In the short term, gold and silver are affected by geopolitical developments, the adjustment of gold and silver weights in the Bloomberg Commodity Index on January 8, the upcoming US non - farm payroll report on Friday, and the nomination of the new Fed chairman. For silver, the results of the 232 report survey in mid - January also need to be noted [1]. - In the long - term, the contraction of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold and silver. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the Fed chairman in the first quarter may be the time when the Fed's stance is the most dovish, and the trading expectation of loose liquidity is smooth, and gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The expectation of the economic cycle shifting to a mild recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Logic - Gold: The international gold price first declined and then rose during the day, once breaking through $4,500 per ounce, and Shanghai gold returned above 1,000 yuan. Short - term gold prices may maintain a strong trend, supported by continuous geopolitical tensions and concerns about the slowdown of US economic growth. The newly released US ISM manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024, and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, strengthening the market's concerns about economic growth slowdown. Four key factors should be focused on in the short term: the development of the situation after the US raid on Venezuela; the reduction of gold and silver weights in the Bloomberg Commodity Index starting from January 8; the potential "sell - on - news" risk after the confirmation of the new Fed chairman nomination; and the upcoming December non - farm and inflation data's guidance on the Fed's interest - rate cut path in 2026. In the long - term, the contraction of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold, and it is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the first quarter [3][6]. - Silver: Silver continued to rise during the day, once reaching $80 per ounce. The short - term volatility risk of silver has increased, and position risks need to be vigilant. The short - term drivers of silver are similar to those of gold. In addition, the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January should be noted, as the expectation of silver tariffs may be the key factor for the change in the subsequent spot circulation. Currently, there is still a structural shortage of silver spot, and the silver lease rate, although declining, remains high, and the squeeze risk has not been completely eliminated. In the long - term, the contraction of the US dollar credit also supports the upward trend of silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [6]. Key Information - The final values of the US S&P Global Services PMI and Composite PMI in December were both lower than the previous values. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in December was 52.5 (expected and previous values were both 52.9), and the final value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in December was 52.7 (previous value was 53) [2]. - The final values of the Eurozone Services PMI and Composite PMI in December were both lower than the expected and previous values. The final value of the Eurozone Services PMI in December was 52.4 (expected and previous values were both 52.6), and the final value of the Eurozone Composite PMI in December was 51.5 (expected and previous values were both 51.9) [2]. - On January 5, the Swiss Federal Council announced the freezing of all assets of Nicolas Maduro and related personnel in Switzerland, with an immediate and a validity period of 4 years [2]. - On January 5, Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded "not guilty" to the US "accusations" during a court hearing in New York [2]. - On January 6, the 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held, emphasizing strengthened supervision of the inter - bank bond market, money market, foreign exchange market, bill market, gold market, and related derivatives [2]. - Guotou Ruixin Fund Management Co., Ltd. announced on January 6 that the fund will be suspended from trading from the opening on January 7, 2026, until 10:30, and resume trading at 10:30 on the same day. If the premium rate of the fund's secondary - market trading price on January 7, 2026, does not effectively decline, the fund has the right to apply to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for intraday temporary suspension or extended suspension to alert the market of risks [2]. Index Information - Characteristic Index: The Commodity Index was 2387.24, up 2.43%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2730.32, up 2.47%; the Industrial Products Index was 2317.00, up 2.19%; the PPI Commodity Index was 1458.90, up 3.45% [48]. - Sector Index: The Precious Metals Index on January 6, 2026, was 4058.30, with a daily increase of 6.12%, a 5 - day increase of 2.00%, a 1 - month increase of 15.09%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.12% [49].