弱美元+地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯延续上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 616.8 yuan/gram, with a 6.02% increase; the palladium main contract was 471.9 yuan/gram, with a 5.16% increase [1] - Due to weak US dollar and geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to maintain a strong trend, while palladium may continue to rise due to geopolitical risks and spot shortages [1][2] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important growth point in the future [1] - Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Main Logic - Trump may announce the next Fed Chair candidate in January, and the future interest - rate cut path is still optimistic; the geopolitical risk has fermented again after the US military raid in Venezuela on January 3, which may further intensify price fluctuations [1] - By the close on January 6, the premium of the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 26.6 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged [1] - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future [1] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding. The combination of "interest - rate cut + soft landing" will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [1] Outlook - With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the price may continue to have wide - range fluctuations, and investors should trade cautiously. They can pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying after sufficient adjustment [2] - Regarding arbitrage strategies, wait for the price difference to widen again and then continue to pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity; when the price difference between platinum and palladium converges, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium [2] Palladium Main Logic - The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report is not yet released, resulting in a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [2] - Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides support for the bottom of the palladium price [2] Outlook - With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, the price fluctuations intensify, and investors should trade cautiously [2] - For arbitrage strategies, take profit on the internal - external positive arbitrage temporarily and participate in going long on platinum and shorting on palladium opportunistically [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2387.24, +2.43%), the Commodity 20 Index (2730.32, +2.47%), and the Industrial Products Index (2317.00, +2.19%) [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 6, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2838.75, with a daily increase of 5.69%, a 5 - day increase of 6.06%, a 1 - month increase of 10.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.69% [49]