能源化策略：沙特连续第三个?下调对亚洲的OSP油价，塑料反弹后基差?弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks are disturbing the energy and chemical market, and the chemical industry as a whole will continue its volatile pattern. The prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost support, showing different trends [4]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors continue to cause disruptions, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The actual reduction in Venezuelan crude oil exports is still uncertain, API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories but an increase in gasoline and diesel inventories. OPEC +'s production expectations for the first quarter are stable, but the geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the core factors affecting supply expectations [8][9]. - Asphalt: As the political situation in Venezuela stabilizes, asphalt futures prices will decline. The supply interruption expectation of asphalt raw materials will be alleviated, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, inventory is accumulating, and its valuation compared to some products is relatively high [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. However, high - sulfur fuel oil faces medium - to long - term double negatives from high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil demand by natural gas and photovoltaics [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices will fluctuate. It follows the trend of crude oil, has a certain support, but also faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [12]. - Methanol: Due to the turbulent situation in the Middle East, methanol will rise strongly. The market is affected by overseas supply disruptions and high inventory pressure, but the methanol market based on coastal trading logic is still considered strong [27]. - Urea: New orders are actively traded. The release of the India tender has boosted market sentiment, and urea prices will be moderately strong. The supply is increasing, demand from some regions is rising, and the market is in a moderately strong state, but the upside space during the off - season is limited [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. Cost support is significant, but with the approaching Spring Festival, demand is expected to decline, and the price will be range - bound in the short term [20]. - PX: Geopolitical factors boost international oil prices, providing cost support for PX. In the short term, PX supply is expected to return, downstream polyester load is stable, and PX prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range [13]. - PTA: Cost support and a positive chemical market sentiment strengthen the support for PTA prices. After the post - holiday maintenance devices return to production, the supply - demand relationship is marginally weaker, and the processing fee is slightly reduced [14][15]. - Short - Fiber: Cost provides some support, but demand is not sustainable, and profits are under pressure. Although the cost of upstream polyester raw materials is rising, the short - fiber's own supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the off - season [22][23]. - Bottle - Chip: More device overhauls are scheduled in January, and the basis is strong. The cost is rising, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching. The increase in overhauls enhances the support for profits [24]. - Plastic: The weak basis restricts the upside space of plastics. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro - expectations and low - valuation varieties, the spot is weak, and demand is in the off - season [31][32]. - PP: The increase in overhauls makes PP prices rise cautiously. Affected by oil prices and geopolitical factors, the downstream is in the off - season, and the focus is on PDH in the future [33]. - PL: Supported by the expectation of PDH overhauls, PL prices will fluctuate. The spot trading atmosphere has improved, but downstream demand support is limited during the off - season [33]. - PVC: Frequent supply disruptions lead to a strong rebound in PVC. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. There are positive factors such as overseas device outages and expected increases in electricity costs, but the downstream is in the off - season [35]. - Caustic Soda: Positive market sentiment drives caustic soda prices. Geopolitical factors may boost the sentiment of commodity bulls. The expected increase in electricity costs for restricted - capacity caustic soda production in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment, but the market is also facing problems such as high inventory [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.41 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 26 with a change of - 12 [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is - 74 with a change of - 11, and the number of warehouse receipts is 27920 [40]. - Inter - variety Spreads: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 564 with a change of - 141 [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety is mentioned, no detailed data or summaries are provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and PPI commodity index all show positive growth rates on January 6, 2026 [284]. - Sector Index: The energy index on January 6, 2026, has a daily increase of 0.03%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.16%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.03% [285].