黄金：避险情绪回升白银：新高待破

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity = 2): Container Freight Index (European Line) [127] - Bullish (Trend Intensity = 1): Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel, Carbonate Lithium, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [6][10][13][16][19][22][25][29][62][65][74][80][87][92][116] - Neutral (Trend Intensity = 0): Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Log, Paraxylene, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut [36][40][45][53][57][68][71][84][96][103][111][128][131][135][139][145][148][157][161][164][170] - Bearish (Trend Intensity = - 1): Sugar [155] Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their current market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It emphasizes the importance of considering both macro - economic and industry - specific factors when making investment decisions in the commodity futures market. For example, geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics all play significant roles in determining commodity prices. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. With geopolitical uncertainties such as the Trump administration's discussion of obtaining Greenland, gold prices are supported [6]. - Silver: A new high is yet to be broken. Market sentiment and macro - economic factors are influencing its price movement [6]. Base Metals - Copper: Driven by computing power demand, the price is strong. Nvidia's positive outlook on data - center chip revenue and China's copper import data contribute to the upward trend [10]. - Zinc: Running strongly. Price increases are accompanied by changes in trading volume and inventory [13]. - Lead: LME inventory reduction supports the price. Geopolitical news and market sentiment also have an impact [16]. - Tin: Trading in a range. Supply - demand balance and macro - economic factors are key considerations [19]. - Aluminum: Oscillating strongly. Alumina has rebounded significantly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. - Nickel: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. Indonesia's policies on nickel production and exports are important influencing factors [25]. - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the disk is mainly influenced by Indonesia's policies [25]. Energy - Related Commodities - Crude Oil: The market is worried about long - term supply surplus, and geopolitical tensions have not intensified, leading to a decline in international oil prices [58]. - Fuel Oil: Turning strong, short - term upward movement is more likely. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels has narrowed slightly [116]. Chemical Commodities - PTA: In a high - level oscillating market. Supply - demand balance and cost factors are important [57]. - MEG: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. Supply and demand in the polyester industry and inventory levels are key factors [57]. - Methanol: Short - term upward trend. Geopolitical events and inventory expectations are influencing the price [87]. - Urea: The oscillation center is moving up. Agricultural demand expectations and supply - demand dynamics are important [92]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation. Market valuation and export volume are influencing factors [96]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has changed little. Supply and demand in the soda ash industry are relatively stable [48]. - LPG: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. PDH and other related industry data are important [103]. - Propylene: Demand is stable, and the spot price is slightly rising [103]. - PVC: Short - term upward trend, but the upside space may be limited. High production and inventory levels are constraints [111]. Agricultural Commodities - Palm Oil: Fundamental drivers are weak, and attention should be paid to macro - economic sentiment [139]. - Soybean Oil: Trading in a range, and attention should be paid to spread opportunities [139]. - Soybean Meal: Overnight US soybean prices closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. US soybean supply and demand reports and China's soybean imports are important factors [145]. - Soybean: Oscillating. Market sentiment and supply - demand balance are key considerations [145]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. Price changes in different regions and import - related news are important [148]. - Sugar: Trading at a low level. Production and consumption data in major producing countries and import policies are important [152]. - Cotton: Maintaining a strong trend. Spot trading and downstream demand in the cotton industry are important [157]. - Egg: Sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. Supply - demand balance and feed prices are key factors [161]. - Live Pig: There is still inventory accumulation behavior. Spot prices and futures contract prices are changing, and inventory registration is also an important factor [164]. - Peanut: Oscillating. Spot market conditions in different regions are relatively stable [170]. Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): The 02 contract is making up for the premium, and for far - month contracts, attention should be paid to premium - making and geopolitical events [118]. - Log: Trading at a low level. Market supply and demand and macro - economic factors are influencing the price [53].