Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - Supply - side: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - Demand - side: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - Price trend: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - Market performance: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - News influence: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - News background: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - Market trend: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - News impact: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - Market performance: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - News influence: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - Market trend: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - News background: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - Market performance: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - News influence: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market trend: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - News background: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - Market situation: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market performance: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Market trend: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market situation: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - Market performance: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - Market trend: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - Market situation: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - Market performance: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - Market trend: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - Market situation: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - Market performance: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - Market trend: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - Market situation: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - Market performance: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - Market situation: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - Market trend: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - Market situation: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - Market performance: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - Market trend: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market situation: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Market performance: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Market situation: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - Market performance: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - Market situation: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Market performance: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - Market situation: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - Market performance: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - Market situation: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - Market performance: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - Market situation: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - Market performance: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - Market situation: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].
国泰君安期货所长早读-20260107
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:30