能源化工日报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, the Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. - For urea, the import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. - For polypropylene, although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Information: INE's main crude oil futures rose 1.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.33%, to 428.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 18.00 yuan/ton, or 0.73%, to 2479.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.27%, to 2925.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a draw of 2.10 million barrels in crude oil arrival inventory to 205.11 million barrels, a build of 0.58 million barrels in gasoline commercial inventory to 89.62 million barrels, a build of 0.42 million barrels in diesel commercial inventory to 92.56 million barrels, and a build of 1.00 million barrels in total refined oil commercial inventory to 182.18 million barrels [1]. - Strategy View: The Latin - American geopolitical situation doesn't strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [1]. 3.2 Methanol - Market Information: Regional spot prices in different areas had various changes. The main futures contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 2293 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 265 yuan [1]. - Strategy View: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. There is limited downward space. Considering the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [1]. 3.3 Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in different areas had changes, and the overall basis was - 58 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 1778 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy View: The import window has opened due to the current internal - external price difference, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [2]. 3.4 Rubber - Market Information: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and rubber prices fluctuated upwards. There were different views from bulls and bears. The total inventory of natural rubber in China increased, and the tire start - up rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - Strategy View: A neutral stance is adopted for now, with a suggestion to partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [6]. 3.5 PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 155 yuan to 4919 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable. The overall start - up rate of PVC was 78.6%, with an increase of 1.4%. The inventory in factories and society increased [7]. - Strategy View: The overall fundamentals are poor as supply is strong while demand is weak. In the short - term, electricity prices may support PVC at the cost end, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [8]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the port inventory of styrene decreased while that of pure benzene increased [10]. - Strategy View: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with large potential for upward valuation repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [11]. 3.7 Polyethylene - Market Information: The main futures contract of polyethylene rose 130 yuan/ton to 6579 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [13]. - Strategy View: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and it is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [14]. 3.8 Polypropylene - Market Information: The main futures contract of polypropylene rose 93 yuan/ton to 6423 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 80 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the inventory in production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average start - up rate decreased [15]. - Strategy View: Although the overall inventory pressure is high under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price may bottom out in Q1 next year when the oversupply pattern changes [17]. 3.9 PX - Market Information: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7336 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic plants restarted and expanded production. The PTA load increased. The import volume from South Korea to China in December increased, and the inventory decreased [18]. - Strategy View: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern before the maintenance season. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [19]. 3.10 PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 104 yuan to 5150 yuan. The PTA load increased, and some plants restarted and increased production. The downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased [21]. - Strategy View: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up phase after a short - term inventory draw. There is a medium - term opportunity to go long on dips [22]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 106 yuan to 3838 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly. Some domestic and overseas plants had operation changes. The downstream load increased, and the port inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand pattern needs significant production cuts to improve. In the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed if there are no further production cuts in China [25].