2026宏观年度报告：经济复苏缓慢，美国中期选举年

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global economy may still be in a slow recovery phase, with pressure and challenges coexisting, and the development stages and central bank strategies of major economies may diverge [2]. - The US economy remains resilient, and in 2026, with the mid - term elections and the change of the Fed's top management, the interest rate cut cycle will continue, and fiscal stimulus will not be absent [2]. - If the Russia - Ukraine conflict ends in 2026, the global economic growth momentum may increase, and the eurozone will be in a situation of slow economic recovery and relatively stable monetary policy [2]. - Japan is likely to continue to tighten its monetary policy in 2026 due to persistently high inflation [2]. - China is expected to implement an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and its economy is expected to recover slowly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Chapters Chapter 1: The US Continues Slow Interest Rate Cuts, and Mid - term Elections Force Bipartisan Re - balance - 1.1 US Economic Downturn Pressure Increases - The IMF predicts global economic growth in 2025 and 2026 to be 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, and is slightly pessimistic about 2026's global economic growth [7]. - In 2025, the US economy showed resilience, with Q1 and Q2 GDP growth rates of 2.00% and 2.10% year - on - year, but the economic downturn pressure increased in the second half of the year [8]. - US consumption remained resilient in 2025, but the consumption potential has been under pressure since May [12]. - The US job market showed a downward trend in 2025, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.4% in September, a four - year high [13]. - US inflation showed a slow upward trend in 2025, but inflation expectations continued to decline, and the Fed may increase its tolerance for high inflation [16][17]. - 1.2 Mid - term Elections are Crucial, and the Fed Chair Changes - The 2026 US mid - term elections will re - elect the seats of the Democratic and Republican parties in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and it is expected that Trump will lose control of the House of Representatives [20]. - The current Fed Chair Powell's second term will end in May 2026, and the most likely candidate for the new chair is Hassett. The Fed is expected to make decisions based on the situation and continue slow interest rate cuts in 2026 [21][22]. Chapter 2: Slow Recovery in the Eurozone and Increased Uncertainty in Japan's Monetary Policy - 2.1 Eurozone Faces Renewed Downturn Pressure, Focus on Russia - Ukraine Negotiations - In 2025, the eurozone economy showed a slow recovery, but in the second half of the year, it declined due to trade wars and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The IMF predicts that the eurozone's economic growth will be 1.20% in 2025 and may drop to 1.14% in 2026 [23]. - Japan's economy declined significantly in Q3 2025, and the IMF predicts that its economic growth in 2026 will still be under pressure [26]. - 2.2 Japan May Further Raise Interest Rates - Since 2025, due to factors such as trade environment deterioration and bond market fluctuations, the future direction of Japan's monetary policy is highly uncertain, and there is an expectation that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in 2026 [27]. - If Japan tightens its monetary policy, it will have a profound impact on the global financial market, and the current Japanese central bank is facing the dilemma of high inflation and high debt [31]. Chapter 3: China's Economy Continues to Recover - 3.1 Consumption is Further Consolidated, and Exports Continue to Support - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with consumption being the main contributor to GDP growth. In 2026, consumption is expected to further drive economic growth [33]. - In 2025, China's domestic demand first increased and then decreased. In 2026, policies such as the expansion of domestic demand and the implementation of consumer - related projects are expected to strengthen the role of consumption in driving the economy [37][38]. - In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment declined, and in 2026, infrastructure construction and real estate market reform are expected to support economic recovery [42][43]. - In 2025, China's exports remained resilient. In 2026, exports are expected to maintain high growth under the influence of factors such as the China - US summit in Busan [44]. - 3.2 More Active Fiscal Policy and Moderately Loose Monetary Policy - In 2026, China's fiscal policy will maintain continuity and stability while focusing on optimizing the expenditure direction, with a narrow deficit rate of about 4.0% and a budget deficit of about 12.5 trillion [45]. - In 2026, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the slow appreciation of the RMB, China's central bank is expected to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, and monetary policy may take the lead in counter - cyclical adjustment [46]. Chapter 4: Conclusion - In 2026, the personnel changes in the US political arena will determine the intensity of global geopolitical games and the degree of the Fed's interest rate cuts, thus setting the external political and liquidity environment for global economic development [47]. - In 2026, the central bank policies of major developed economies may continue to diverge, which may lead to exchange - rate fluctuations and continuous global capital flows [47]. - In 2026, China will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and its economy is expected to recover steadily [48].