宁证期货今日早评-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].