宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年1月7日）-20260107

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures shows a pattern of low - level fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the rebound space of bean futures prices is limited [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 1. Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, and the reference view is also weakly volatile [5][6]. - Core Logic: US soybean exports are weak and there is still a pressure of a bumper harvest in Brazil. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture report. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 113.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%. After the festival, replenishment by traders and feed mills has increased trading volume. The increase in US soybean prices and a slight rise in Brazilian premiums have offset the cost pressure caused by the appreciation of the RMB, strengthening the support of import costs, but there is still resistance above [5]. 2. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, and the reference view is also weakly volatile [6][7]. - Core Logic: BMD palm oil has fluctuated and declined. The market expects the MPOB report to show that the inventory at the end of December will reach a 7 - year high, and India's palm oil imports in December dropped to an 8 - month low. However, poor production at the beginning of December provides support at low levels. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China at the end of the first week is 2.2465 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0104 billion tons. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories have been decreasing, while palm oil inventory has continued to accumulate, highlighting the pressure on palm oil futures and spot prices [7].