玻璃纯碱成本支撑下移，盘面底部震荡运行

Report Title - Glass and soda ash cost support moves down, and the futures market fluctuates at the bottom [1] Report Date - December 29, 2025 [1] Glass Core View - Attention Events: Glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot price [5] - Supply: Last week, float glass production was 1.084 million tons (-0.19), and the national float glass operating rate was 73.89% (-0.1). One production line was cold - repaired last week, and glass production decreased month - on - month. Weakening profits and high inventory may lead to cold - repair expectations [6][15]. - Demand: On December 15, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 9.7 days (-0.4), and last week's float glass weekly apparent demand was 21.6159 million weight boxes (+228,000). Year - end demand weakened, real estate was weak, and downstream orders were still weak year - on - year. There is seasonal year - end restocking demand [6][19]. - Inventory: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes (+650,000); Hubei factory inventory was 5.81 million weight boxes (+265,000); Shahe factory inventory was 4.3176 million weight boxes (+431,200); Shahe trader inventory was 4.2 million weight boxes (-240,000). Mid - and downstream restocking slowed, mid - stream inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased [6][23]. - Cost and Profit: Last week, glass cost was stable with a slight increase, and profit declined. The weekly average cost of float glass with natural gas as fuel was 1,344 yuan/ton (+0); with coal - made gas as fuel was 1,030 yuan/ton (+4); with petroleum coke as fuel was 1,070 yuan/ton (+0) [34]. - Conclusion and View: Glass demand drives the futures market down. High upstream inventory exerts downward pressure. Rising warehouse receipts may also pressure the market. With weakening coal prices, glass cost is expected to decline. Adopt a fluctuating view, with the glass index operating in the range of 960 - 1,040 [6]. Soda Ash Core View - Attention Events: Alkali factory maintenance, alkali factory inventory accumulation, and glass production [7] - Supply: Last week, soda ash production was 711,900 tons (-9,500), including light soda ash production of 326,300 tons (-4,800) and heavy soda ash production of 385,600 tons (-4,700). Weakening prices increase alkali factory maintenance willingness, and long - term supply pressure is high due to new capacity. Short - term production is under pressure [7]. - Demand: Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 243,015 tons (-0.08), and the weekly apparent demand for soda ash was 772,700 tons (+56,300). Photovoltaic and float glass production decreased, and float glass cold - repair expectations increased, pressuring soda ash demand. Heavy soda ash demand is expected to weaken, while light soda ash demand is relatively stable [7]. - Inventory: Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.4385 million tons (-60,800), including light soda ash inventory of 735,500 tons (+7,900) and heavy soda ash inventory of 703,000 tons (-68,700). Short - term inventory accumulation pressure has eased, but long - term supply increase expectations require caution [7]. - Cost and Profit: According to Steel Union, last week, soda ash cost declined, and profit increased. The current cost support for light soda ash by the joint - alkali method in East China is around 1,210 yuan [7]. - Conclusion and View: Adopt a fluctuating view, with the soda ash index operating in the range of 1,100 - 1,190. Pay attention to cost support, and with weakening coal prices, soda ash cost is expected to decline [7]. Glass Price - As of December 26, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1,010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Central China, it was 1,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream market glass price is weak [11]. Soda Ash Price - As of December 26, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 910 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,141 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The mainstream market light soda ash price is weak, while the heavy soda ash price fluctuates strongly [47]. Glass and Soda Ash Basis and Spread - Glass: As of December 26, the glass 01 basis was - 47, a week - on - week decrease of 36; the glass 5 - 9 contract spread was - 103, a week - on - week decrease of 6. The glass spot price weakened, and the basis and spread both weakened [42]. - Soda Ash: As of December 26, the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 59, a week - on - week decrease of 13; the soda ash 5 - 9 contract spread was - 58, a week - on - week increase of 2. The soda ash spot price was strong, the basis weakened, and the spread strengthened [68].