格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05%. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.31%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 312.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.43%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly rose compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 1.75 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 2.73 basis points to 1.67%, the 10 - year rose 2.45 basis points to 1.88%, and the 30 - year rose 2.82 basis points to 2.31% [1] - The US Supreme Court announced that it will make a ruling on the Trump tariff case this Friday (January 9th) [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce: All dual - use items are prohibited from being exported to Japanese military users [1] Market Logic - China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in December was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line, with the previous value at 49.2%. In December, the production index was 51.7%, and the new orders index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index in December was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line, compared to 49.5% in the previous month. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's fourth - quarter meeting pointed out that it should grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation based on domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations. In December 2025, the central bank net injected 5 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading operations, conducting treasury bond trading operations for the third consecutive month. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose unilaterally, and closed with a bald阳线. It closed 1.59% higher than the previous trading day, and the trading volume was 2.83 trillion yuan, continuing to expand from 2.57 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. On Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened significantly lower and consolidated at a low level throughout the day [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]