2026年螺纹钢年报：出自幽谷迁于乔木

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economy will continue to maintain a mild recovery trend. With the strengthening of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments of macro policies, the overall market confidence will be boosted. The steel price will be jointly driven by the domestic macro - friendly market and the marginal improvement of fundamentals, showing a relatively strong oscillation. The annual steel price may first decline and then rise in an "N" shape, with the price fluctuating in the range of [2800, 3800] and the core critical point around 3200. The overall annual strategy is to buy on dips during peak seasons and policy windows [2][33]. Summary of Each Section 2025 Steel Market Review - The 2025 steel market was volatile, with the price center gradually declining. It showed an inverted "N" shape due to the alternation of strong policy stimulus and weak fundamentals. The rebar futures price went through three stages: a first - round decline from January to early June, a retaliatory rebound from June to July, and an oscillatory bottom - grinding from late August to December [4]. - In the first stage (January - early June 2025), weak fundamentals led to a unilateral decline. Slow post - holiday construction site resumption, poor funds, a deep - adjusted real - estate market, and US tariff increases hit the market, causing a 14.7% drop in the rebar futures index and a nearly 500 - point decline in the weighted index [7]. - In the second stage (June - July 2025), the "anti - involution" policy and coal production restrictions drove a 15.4% increase in the rebar futures index and a nearly 450 - point rise in the weighted index [8]. - In the third stage (late August - December 2025), the rebar futures index oscillated in the range of [3000, 3300] due to weak peak - season demand, policy fulfillment, and weak cost support [10]. Macro Analysis Macro Data Analysis - In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, returning to the expansion range. The production index was 51.7%, the new order index was 50.8%, and the new export order index was 49%. The raw material purchase price index was 53.1%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.9% [12]. Central Economic Work Conference Direction Guidance - The 2026 economic work continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" principle but emphasizes "improving quality and efficiency". Fiscal and monetary policies are more refined and practical, focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting economic growth through innovation and reform [15][16]. Fundamental Analysis Steel Supply - Side Analysis - Cost and profit: In 2025, the overall profitability of steel mills was better than in 2024, with an average annual profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The profit growth mainly came from raw material price drops. In 2026, the profit pressure may increase [19]. - Production: In 2026, steel supply is expected to run smoothly. By mid - December 2025, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 3.17% year - on - year, and the scrap steel daily consumption of 255 steel mills increased by 8.2% year - on - year. It is estimated that the total domestic crude steel demand in 2026 will decline by 0.13% year - on - year, and the crude steel and iron - water production will be basically the same as in 2025, at 102044.04 million tons and 87873.71 million tons respectively [22][23]. Steel Demand - Side Analysis - Real estate: Since 2025, the real - estate market has introduced favorable policies, but the data shows a decline. From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year [26]. - Infrastructure: In 2025, infrastructure investment growth declined. The growth rates of broad and narrow infrastructure investment dropped from 9% and 4.4% in 2024 to 1.5% and - 0.1% respectively from January to October. In 2026, steel supply is expected to exceed demand, which may suppress the market price [29][31].