烧碱：短期偏强，中期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda's short - term trend may be strong due to macro - sentiment, but the spot market faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts, and without production cuts by manufacturers, a significant rebound is difficult. The market may have a short - term rebound under the influence of anti - involution sentiment, but the overall high - production and high - inventory pattern persists, with weak demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price was 2194, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 690, the price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda converted to the futures market was 2156, and the basis was - 38 [1] Spot News - On January 6, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was weakly stable. Some enterprises with high - priced products and poor sales reduced prices, high - concentration caustic soda orders were scarce, export prices were low, and the market price continued to decline [2] Market Condition Analysis - After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda 2601 contract dropped significantly due to a large number of 01 - contract warehouse receipts and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery, leading to massive position - closing. The pressure on near - month contracts and continuous spot price cuts also caused other contracts to weaken. However, based on the delivery situation, the closing price of the 01 contract on Monday night was 1940 yuan/ton, and long - position holders would not lose money. This price was much lower than Shandong Weiqiao's purchase price, and the discount to the spot was sufficient to cover storage and transaction costs, so the short - term decline due to delivery factors would be limited [3] - Fundamentally, caustic soda remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. On the demand side, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and with high operating rates, the supply pressure of caustic soda is large, and enterprises still face the pressure of reducing prices to clear inventory before the Spring Festival [3] - Overall, there is limited room for caustic soda to continue trading on the near - month delivery pressure. In the short term, driven by macro - sentiment, the trend may be strong. However, the spot market still faces the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. Without production cuts by manufacturers, caustic soda is unlikely to have an obvious rebound. Attention should also be paid to the shutdown of the Freeport chlor - alkali plant of Olin in the United States, which may have an impact on caustic soda exports [3]