棉花：维持强势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market maintains a strong trend. The price of domestic cotton futures and spot has increased, while the ICE cotton futures rose but lacked a clear fundamental upward driver, leading to a narrowing of the increase at the end of the session. The price of pure - cotton yarn showed a mixed trend, with the prices of medium - and low - count yarns weakening and high - count yarns remaining firm. Spinning mills' and weaving mills' operating rates were not optimistic [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data - CF2605 closed at 14,855 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.36% and 15,030 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.18%. CY2603 closed at 20,875 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.46% and 21,020 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.69%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.77% [1]. - CF2605 had a trading volume of 503,809 lots yesterday, a decrease of 131,926 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,205,941 lots, an increase of 45,691 lots. CY2603 had a trading volume of 10,324 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 18,697 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 6,824 yesterday, an increase of 706, and the effective forecast was 2,570, a decrease of 681. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 20 yesterday, an increase of 1, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 1 [1]. - Spot Data - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 1.29%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was also 15,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 1.29% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,768 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.77%. The price in Hebei was 15,742 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.90% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,711 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.61%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.54 cents/pound, an increase of 0.44 cents/pound from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.61% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.19%. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 20,958 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.01% [1]. - Spread Data - The CF3 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. (2) Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot - The trading atmosphere of domestic cotton spot was good, with active trading of spot fixed - price contracts and fair trading of partial locked - basis contracts. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Nanjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 were mostly above 15,500 (on a conditioned weight basis), and those of the same - quality Beijiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above 15,700 (on a conditioned weight basis), for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly CF05 + 1500 - 1700, and the number of low - basis offers decreased, for self - pick - up in the inland [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises - The price center of pure - cotton yarn moved slightly upward locally, but the overall trading was light. Recently, the market of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarns) was weak due to poor terminal sales, and discounts were common in actual transactions, resulting in a continuous narrowing of enterprise profit margins. The demand for combed high - count yarns (40S and above) remained strong, and the sales were stable. Inland spinning mills continued to slightly reduce their operating rates to avoid inventory backlog risks and were mainly digesting previous orders. The operating rate of downstream weaving mills remained low [2]. - US Cotton - The ICE cotton futures rose yesterday, affected by the continuous increase in Chinese cotton prices and the possible further reduction of the cotton planting area in the US in 2026. However, the ICE cotton futures still lacked a clear fundamental upward driver, so the increase narrowed at the end of the session [2]. (3) Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].