2026年菜油年报：道是无晴却有晴

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and international macro - cycles may not support a trend - upward movement in agricultural products such as oils. However, the weakening of the US dollar may support commodity prices to some extent [4][21]. - Newly - expected global rapeseed oil production and consumption will both increase slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to tighten from 13.54% to 12.48%. In the 2025/2026 season, the domestic rapeseed oil supply and demand will change little compared to the previous year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 21.7%, lower than 24.5% of the previous year. Rapeseed oil may enter the end of active destocking and the passive destocking phase in 2026 [4][21]. - Rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil prices are highly correlated. Rapeseed oil may be more affected by capital. In the new year, soybean oil and palm oil may show volatile trends, with opportunities in structural trading. Overall, rapeseed oil may not form a large - scale trend and will mainly operate in a volatile manner. Traders should seize structural and phased trading opportunities [4][22][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Market - Diversified sources of rapeseed imports: The EU, Canada, and China are the main rapeseed - producing regions, accounting for over 85% of global production. Canada is the largest exporter, the EU is a net importer, and China, as the largest consumer, relies on a large amount of imports. In recent years, China has increased imports from Russia and Australia [6]. - Tightened inventory - to - consumption ratio of Canadian rapeseed: In the 2025/2026 season, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 21 million tons. The domestic crush volume is expected to increase to 11.75 million tons, and the ending inventory is 3 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio tightens from 14.79% to 11.35% [7][8]. - Tightened inventory - to - consumption ratio of global rapeseed oil: In 2025/2026, global rapeseed oil production will increase to 32.06 million tons. Consumption will increase slightly, and the ending inventory will be 4.02 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio tightens from 13.54% to 12.48% [9]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory of rapeseed oil will increase slightly. The domestic production of rapeseed oil will decrease to 7.42 million tons due to a significant reduction in rapeseed imports. The direct import of rapeseed oil is expected to be 1.85 million tons. The total supply is expected to be 11.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.96 million tons from the previous year. The total demand is expected to slightly contract. The ending inventory is expected to be 2.1 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 21.7%, lower than the previous year [11][12]. Price Trends of the Oil Sector - Soybean oil: In 2025/2026, the global soybean supply will remain loose, but structural contradictions are prominent. The US soybean planting area is declining, Brazil's supply is abundant, and Argentina's supply faces risks from La Niña. The US biodiesel policy may boost demand but also brings uncertainties. Soybean oil may show a volatile trend, with trading opportunities in structural contradictions [17]. - Palm oil: In 2026, the global palm oil supply remains tight but increases slightly. Malaysia's production is flat, and Indonesia's production increases slightly. The US and Indonesia's biodiesel policies may affect demand. Palm oil will mainly show a volatile trend, with potential for structural trading opportunities [17][18].