2026年聚乙烯年报：寒枝未暖，晓色难寻

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cost - side support for polyethylene is weak, and the supply - and - demand sides are under significant pressure. The market will fluctuate weakly with large upward pressure, mainly fluctuating in the bottom range in the short term. In the long term, attention can be paid to the structural opportunities brought by high - end production capacity and emerging demand [4][44]. - The cost support is expected to be limited. Crude oil supply is in global surplus with slowing demand growth, and coal supply - demand remains loose with weak and stable prices. Oil and coal provide insufficient cost support for polyethylene, and attention should be paid to the phased disturbances of macro and geopolitical factors on oil and coal prices [3][43]. - The supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to increase. In 2026, domestic polyethylene will continue to expand production, with planned new capacity exceeding 7 million tons and total capacity expected to reach 45 million tons. The proportion of high - pressure and high - end devices will increase. Import is expected to continue to shrink, and the industry focuses on high - performance competition [3][43]. - There is an expectation of slow recovery in demand. Domestic PE demand will gradually pick up, with short - and long - term trends diverging and uncertainties remaining. Stable - growth policies and consumption improvement will support demand, but overseas trade disturbances may restrict exports [3][43]. - There is uncertainty in the alleviation of inventory pressure in the industrial chain. The core variables are the release rhythm of previous production capacity and the strength of demand recovery. If demand does not improve and new capacity is released, inventory may remain high; if demand recovers due to policy stimulation, the pressure is expected to ease [3][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Polyethylene Market Review - First stage (January 2 - May 30): The market was in a game between supply and demand with wide fluctuations. Supply was loose throughout the period, and demand was persistently weak. The overall supply - and - demand situation led to a downward price movement first and then a fluctuating bottom - building, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [6]. - Second stage (June 3 - August 26): The market entered a game between cost support and supply pressure, showing a trend of fluctuating and stabilizing. Cost support from rising crude oil prices and high - level supply coexisted. Downstream demand was divided. The market price was difficult to break through upwards, and the upward rebound power was insufficient [7]. - Third stage (August 27 - December 31): The imbalance between supply and demand intensified, and the market accelerated to the bottom. Supply was stable with new capacity continuously released, and demand was weak. The cost support was weak, and the price dropped to the annual low and then fluctuated at the bottom [8]. 2. Cost - Profit: Limited Support from Oil and Coal, Losses in Dual - Process Profits - Expected loose supply - and - demand of oil and coal, cost - side under pressure: In 2025, the crude oil market was in supply - demand surplus with a "high - then - low" price trend and a lower price center. In 2026, the supply - demand surplus pressure will still be large, and the price center will move down. The coking coal market in 2025 had a "V - shaped" price trend, and in 2026, it is expected to remain in a loose supply - demand balance with a low - level operation [11][13]. - Differentiated dual - process profits, weak cost support awaiting a turnaround: In 2025, the profitability of coal - based and oil - based LLDPE was significantly different. By the end of the year, both were in a loss state, which suppressed the production enthusiasm of enterprises. In 2026, the raw material cost of polyethylene may move down, but geopolitical and domestic coal price factors may cause disturbances [15][16]. 3. Supply Side: High Pressure from New Domestic Investments, Import May Continue to Shrink - Continued expansion cycle, pay attention to the realization of new investment capacity: From 2020 - 2026, it is an expansion cycle for the domestic polyethylene industry. In 2025, the design capacity reached 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.206%. In 2026, the planned new capacity is expected to exceed 7 million tons, and the total capacity may reach 45 million tons, which will intensify competition but also promote product structure upgrading [18][20]. - Overhaul and expansion go hand in hand, the pressure of abundant market supply in 2026 is difficult to ease: In 2025, the overhaul loss of polyethylene increased, and the production increased. In 2026, about 5 million tons of new capacity will be put into production, and the supply - side will continue to expand, with intensified competition for general grades and an upgraded supply structure [24][25]. - Weak recovery of import profit, polyethylene import may continue to shrink: Since the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, new domestic polyethylene plants were put into operation, squeezing imports. In 2025, the import profit declined, and the import volume decreased. In 2026, imports may continue to shrink, depending on domestic supply and import profit recovery [29][31]. 4. Demand Side: There is Still Room for Policy to Take Effect, Demand is Expected to Recover Slowly - Mild bottom - building and recovery, waiting for the resonance of policy and demand: In 2025, the domestic economy was in a mild bottom - building and recovery stage, with a slow recovery of internal and external demand. In 2026, domestic demand for plastic products is expected to gradually pick up, but the growth will be moderate due to external uncertainties [33][35]. - Low downstream start - up, short - term pressure in 2026 awaiting recovery: In 2025, the downstream start - up of polyethylene decreased year - on - year, and the demand growth was limited. In the long term, emerging industries will create new demand for polyethylene. In the short term, the weak demand pattern may continue until the first half of 2026 [37][39]. 5. Inventory Side: Inventory Center Moves Up, Uncertainty Remains in Pressure Alleviation - In 2025, the overall inventory in the industrial chain was loose, and the inventory center was higher than in previous years. In 2026, there is uncertainty in the alleviation of inventory pressure, which depends on the release rhythm of production capacity and the strength of demand recovery [41].