2026年玉米年报：潮落潮起：玉米新周期或开启

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The corn price cycle is about 3 - 5 years, following the pattern of rising - oscillating - falling. The current cycle that started in 2021 is at the end of the downward phase, and a new cycle may begin in 2026. After four years of sharp fluctuations, the planting cost has declined, and the corn price has returned to the previous low - volatility range, reaching a near - four - year low and facing an important support level for futures prices [2] - The global corn market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster than supply, laying the foundation for price increases. The total global corn production has reached a new peak, while the ending inventory has decreased year - on - year, providing fundamental support for a slow upward trend in global corn prices. China's structural adjustment of import strategies is reshaping the global corn trade pattern [2] - In 2026, the domestic corn market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. The domestic market has established a supply system of "high self - sufficiency, low imports", and demand is characterized by "stable feed, growing deep - processing", with deep - processing becoming a key factor in balancing supply and demand [3] - In 2026, the corn market is expected to enter a moderately upward cycle, with the price center rising slightly compared to this year, but there is insufficient momentum for a sharp increase, and the overall trend will be a slow climb [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Corn Cyclical Patterns - Corn has experienced four complete price fluctuation cycles in the past 20 years and is currently at the end of the fifth cycle, about to enter a new cycle. Each cycle lasts about 3 - 5 years, and the length is affected by national agricultural policies and external shocks [4] - The first cycle (2004 - 2008) was driven by supply - demand fundamentals and early agricultural policies, with a typical rise - correction pattern and reaching a peak due to the global food crisis [4] - The second cycle (2008 - 2011) saw significant price fluctuations under the influence of the financial crisis and policy intervention. Prices recovered later due to policy support and demand resurgence [4] - The third cycle (2011 - 2016) was dominated by the "policy - led market". The temporary storage policy supported prices but also led to high inventory pressure. The market entered a transition period after the policy was cancelled [4] - The fourth cycle (2016 - 2021): With the policy shift to "market - based procurement plus subsidies", prices were mainly determined by market supply and demand. After inventory reduction, capacity adjustment, and demand growth, prices entered an upward channel [5] - The fifth cycle (2021 - present): Affected by factors such as rising planting costs, extreme climate, and geopolitical conflicts, prices have fluctuated widely at high levels. The cycle is now coming to an end, and factors for the next cycle are accumulating [5] 3.2 Analysis of Corn Trends in 2025 - The nominal high of the corn market in this cycle occurred in Q4 2022. In 2023, prices declined throughout the year, and this downward trend continued in 2024 and 2025. In 2025, the market was in the final stage of the bear market, with wide - range fluctuations between 2000 - 2400 yuan/ton [6] - From December 2024 to March 2025, prices rose unilaterally due to expectations of reduced planting area, uncertain weather, and pre - holiday stocking by feed enterprises [7] - From March to June 2025, prices oscillated at high levels. On the one hand, the reduction of farmers' surplus grain and the reluctance of traders to sell provided support; on the other hand, weak feed demand in the off - season and sufficient substitute supply limited the upward space [8] - From June to October 2025, prices declined unilaterally. The expected good harvest in the main producing areas and weak downstream demand led to a pessimistic market sentiment [9][11] - From October 2025 to the present, prices oscillated at the bottom. Although the supply pressure reached its peak with the large - scale listing of new grain, farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - related rumors provided support. The slow recovery of the macro - economy and terminal consumption also limited the scale and speed of inventory reconstruction [12] 3.3 Analysis of the Global Corn Supply - Demand Pattern 3.3.1 The Global Corn Ending Inventory in 2025 was Revised Down Year - on - Year - In 2025, the global corn production is estimated to be 128,296.2 tons, an increase of 5,235.4 tons (4.25%) compared to the previous year. The total supply increased to 176,669.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3,565.7 tons (2.06%) [14] - The global total demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 4,987.5 tons (3.47%) year - on - year, reaching 148,754.8 tons. Due to the faster growth of demand than supply, the ending inventory decreased year - on - year, laying the foundation for a slow upward trend in global corn prices [14][15] 3.3.2 US Corn Supply Reached a Record High, and the Export Pattern Changed Significantly - In the 2025/26 season, the US corn industry expanded comprehensively. The production increased to 42,552.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4,725.7 tons, driven by the expansion of planting area and the increase in yield per unit [16] - The US corn export volume reached 8,128.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 868.1 tons, setting a new record. However, the global trade flow has changed, with the US shifting its export focus due to the shrinking Chinese market [16] - The US corn ending inventory in 2025 reached 5,153.4 tons, the highest in nearly seven years, a year - on - year increase of 1,262.9 tons, reflecting a pattern of oversupply [17] 3.3.3 Brazil's Corn Export Capacity was Limited due to Reduced Production and Strong Domestic Demand - In 2025, Brazil's corn production decreased by 500,000 tons to 13.1 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in second - crop corn caused by the delayed soybean sowing and adverse weather conditions [20] - Brazil's total corn consumption increased by 400,000 tons to 13.95 million tons, driven by the growth of domestic ethanol production and the high demand from the livestock industry [20] - The situation of "decreased production and increased consumption" restricted Brazil's corn export capacity, which affected the global trade flow and provided space for the US to expand its market share [21] 3.4 Analysis of the Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Pattern 3.4.1 Supply: The Trend of Autonomous Supply Pattern was Consolidated - China has built a supply system mainly based on domestic production, and corn self - sufficiency has been significantly improved. In 2025, the production is expected to exceed 300 million tons, reaching a new high, driven by the increase in both planting area and yield per unit [24] - Corn imports and the use of substitute grains have significantly decreased. Imports have changed from a necessary means to make up for the supply gap to a strategic reserve for adjusting variety surpluses and shortages. The reduction in imports has affected the global trade pattern [26] - In 2025/2026, the new - season corn planting cost in Northeast China decreased. The estimated port collection price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The corn inventory in the north and south ports has decreased to a medium - low level in recent years, which may amplify price fluctuations [29][30] 3.4.2 Demand: The Downstream Demand Remained Rigid but without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - The process of reducing pig production capacity has been slow. As of October 2025, the pig inventory was still at a high level, and the demand for corn in the feed industry will remain rigid in the short term, but there is little room for growth [33][34] - In 2025, the corn deep - processing industry showed the characteristics of "expanding capacity, stable consumption, and optimized structure". The annual processing volume was about 78 million tons, accounting for 25% - 30% of domestic consumption. After the industry's profit turned positive in July, it became an important force supporting the corn market [40][43] 3.5 Summary and Price Outlook - The current corn market is at a critical point of cycle transition. The domestic supply has established a pattern of "high self - sufficiency, low imports", and the demand shows a "dual - pillar" structure of "stable feed, growing deep - processing". Corn at the current low price is expected to start a new cycle [48] - In 2026, the corn market is expected to enter a slow upward cycle, with the price center rising slightly, but the possibility of a sharp increase is low. The start of the new cycle depends on the demand recovery after the substantial reduction of pig production capacity, the sustainability of the deep - processing industry's profitability, and external factors such as weather in major producing areas [49]