PP：存量检修不多，基差被动走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The cost of crude oil and propane is strong, the chemical allocation in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. There is no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, and the game between stock supply and demand intensifies. The follow - up of new orders from downstream is weakening, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, so the demand is weak. Overall, the fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit at the cost end has reached a new low, the upstream has locked raw materials and made some pre - sales in the early stage, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Under the deep loss of PDH profit, focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6423, with a daily increase of 1.47%. The trading volume was 476,543, and the open interest changed by 13,147. The 05 - contract basis was - 203 (compared with - 160 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 36 (compared with - 25 the day before) [1] - Important Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China yesterday were 6190 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared with the day before [1] Spot News - The market is relatively strong. Some arbitrage resources cannot be unwound. The sales pressure on the spot side is moderate, and traders generally have a strong willingness to hold prices. The prices of some tight - supply grades have increased slightly. The end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The PP US dollar market price remains stable. Overseas suppliers are not very enthusiastic about offering prices to China, downstream customers continue to purchase on a just - in - time basis, and the trading volume is difficult to improve [1] Market Condition Analysis - Cost side: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The chemical allocation in the market is differentiated, and the aromatics - olefins hedging logic is continuously strengthened. Supply side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between stock supply and demand intensifies. Demand side: The follow - up of new orders from downstream is weakening, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, so the demand is weak. Overall, at the end of the year, the fundamental support is limited. Although the PDH profit at the cost end has reached a new low, the upstream has locked raw materials and made some pre - sales in the early stage, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Under the deep loss of PDH profit, focus on the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0 [2]