PVC：短期偏强，但上方空间或有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Report's Core View - PVC is short - term bullish, but the upside space may be limited [1] - Short - term cost support, future maintenance expectations, and differential electricity price policies drive a phased rebound in PVC prices, but weak demand and high inventory restrict the upside [3] - The high - output and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, and the 03 contract and earlier futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand [3] - The expectation of large - scale production cuts may occur after the 03 contract, and the expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's ability to trade low - valuation factors [3] - The overall chlor - alkali comprehensive profit is at a historically low level, and the supply - side production cut in the peak maintenance season next year may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. However, due to the large contango, caution is needed when chasing high prices [3] - It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For PVC, the 05 contract futures price is 4919, the East China spot price is 4480, the basis is - 439, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 133 [2] Spot News - Driven by industrial macro - expectations and the improvement of building materials products, the PVC futures market has risen rapidly, and the spot market quotes have been steadily raised. Trading has improved compared to the previous day, but terminal procurement demand remains cautious. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, costs are stable, and the market shows a unilateral upward trend [2] Market Condition Analysis - PVC's high inventory and PVC warehouse receipts at a high level mean that future long - position delivery pressure is relatively large [3]