供需预期偏宽松，区间震荡对待

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report In 2026, it is difficult to change the low - profit situation of methanol. The methanol production is expected to remain stable. With the overall production recovery in Iran and new capacity launch, the import pressure remains high, and the supply is expected to be abundant. There are new capacity launches in both downstream MTO and traditional demand, but the competitiveness of the MTO industry is limited and the overall profit of traditional demand is low. The overall downstream operation is expected to be stable but weak. The supply - demand contradiction of methanol is not significant. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of periodic supply - demand mismatches. It is expected that the methanol futures price will fluctuate in the range of 1900 - 2500 yuan/ton [3][4][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review In 2025, the methanol futures price operation can be divided into four stages. From January to May, it oscillated downward below 2700 yuan/ton, with a low of around 2200 yuan/ton. From June to July, it rebounded strongly, with a high of around 2550 yuan/ton. From August to October, it oscillated downward, with a low of around 2200 yuan/ton. From November to December, the domestic methanol market oscillated [9][10][11]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Methanol Supply - Side Factors 2.1 Total Capacity Remains Stable, with Little New Pressure In 2025, the total national methanol production capacity was about 10804.5 tons/year, basically stable compared with 2024. In 2026, the planned methanol production capacity to be put into operation is 787.7 tons/year, and the new devices have little impact on market supply pressure [13]. 2.2 Methanol Operation at a High - Level Oscillation In 2025, the average methanol operation load was estimated to be around 87%, and the annual domestic production increased by about 11% year - on - year. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol devices was 89.81%, at a high level within the year [17]. 2.3 Poor Profits of Coal - to - Methanol Devices In 2025, the profits of coke - oven gas - to - methanol and coal - to - methanol were positive for most of the time, while those of natural - gas - to - methanol were negative for most of the time. Overall, the profits of methanol devices were poor [19]. 2.4 Methanol Imports - Annual Imports Show a Pattern of Low at First and High Later In 2025, methanol imports showed a pattern of low at first and high later. In 2026, methanol imports are expected to increase, with domestic demand expansion as the fundamental driver, overseas supply abundance and cost advantages as the direct support [22][23]. 2.5 Methanol Port Inventories Declined in the First Half of the Year and Accumulated to a High Level in the Second Half As of December 10, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.5 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 35.28 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.87 tons [25]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Methanol Demand - Side Factors In 2025, the overall operation of methanol downstream was relatively stable, with demand increments released in areas such as glacial acetic acid, MTBE, chlorides, and BDO. In 2025 - 2026, attention should be paid to the progress of three new projects [28]. 3.1 Limited Competitiveness of the Downstream MTO Industry, with Operation Expected to be Stable but Weak In 2025, the operation of methanol - to - olefins in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with a central value of about 70%. The overall downstream operation was at a relatively low level in the past five years [29]. 3.2 Slightly Negative Profits of Downstream Acetic Acid, Difficult to Maintain High - Level Operation in the Long Term In 2025, the acetic acid industry added about 590 tons/year of production capacity, with a total production capacity reaching 1585 tons/year and a production of about 1200 tons/year. In 2026, there are still 280 tons of production capacity to be put into operation, and the supply - demand contradiction may continue [34]. 3.3 Analysis of Methane Chloride - Stable Operation but Under Profit Pressure In 2025, methane chloride showed characteristics of loose supply - demand, low prices, and profit pressure. In 2026, there are still 76 tons of new production capacity to be put into operation, and the supply - demand contradiction may continue [36]. 3.4 Low - Level Profits of Formaldehyde, Stable Operation In 2025, the Chinese formaldehyde industry entered a critical period of high - quality development. In 2026, the formaldehyde production capacity will increase to about 3100 tons, and the demand is expected to increase by 2% year - on - year [39]. Chapter 4: Analysis of Other Price - Influencing Factors 4.1 Slightly Loose Supply - Demand of Coal Throughout the Year at the Cost End In 2025, the supply - demand of coal was loose at first and then tight, with prices oscillating in a V - shape. In 2026, coal supply - demand is expected to be "loose in the off - season and tight in the peak season", with an overall slightly loose balance [44][45]. 4.2 Crude Oil Prices Expected to be Under Pressure In 2025, the global crude oil supply - demand pattern was imbalanced, with supply increasing and demand weakening. In 2026, the crude oil supply surplus is about 384 barrels/day [48][50]. 4.3 China's Economy is Expected to Recover Slowly, with Policies Aimed at Stabilizing the Economy The central economic work conference emphasized promoting economic development and achieving a good start in the 14th Five - Year Plan [54]. Chapter 5: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies In 2026, the low - profit situation of methanol is difficult to change. The supply is expected to be abundant, the downstream operation is expected to be stable but weak, and the methanol futures price is expected to oscillate in the range of 1900 - 2500 yuan/ton [59].