短缺叙事下的震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, and the center of gravity may move upward further. The upward momentum mainly comes from the resonance of the macro - loose liquidity and the supply - side gap [68]. - On the macro - front, the Fed is expected to continue the interest - rate cut cycle, providing support for copper prices from the financial attribute level. On the supply - side, the supply growth of refined copper, especially in China, will be significantly suppressed. On the demand - side, the structural transformation is deepening, but the actual growth intensity of emerging demand in 2026 needs to be tested [68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, copper prices fluctuated strongly, with the price center rising significantly. The cumulative increase of both domestic and foreign markets exceeded 30% during the year, hitting new highs at the end of the year. The Shanghai copper price exceeded 98,000 yuan/ton, and the London copper price exceeded $12,000/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the global economy showed strong resilience, with the actual growth rate basically in line with the initial forecast of 2.7%. The main disturbances were the US tariff policy, potential risks of AI expansion, and increasing fiscal pressure. In 2026, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow to 3.1%, and the inflation level will slow to 3.7%. The average growth of world trade volume from 2025 - 2026 will be 2.9%, still far lower than the 3.5% in 2024 [11]. 2.2 US Economy - In 2025, the US economic growth slowed down, with the annual growth rate dropping by 0.8 percentage points. The macro - economic situation was complex, with stubborn inflation, a cooling job market, and cautious policy - making. The US dollar index was expected to remain weak in 2026. In 2025, US inflation rebounded, and the core inflation rate was always above 2%. The job market changed from stable to weak, mainly due to immigration policies, government layoffs, and AI substitution [14]. - In 2026, AI - related investment and consumption will be the core driving forces for economic growth, but there are certain structural risks [15]. 2.3 Chinese Economy - In 2025, China's macro - policy became more proactive. The economy grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but there was deflation pressure, and the overall consumer willingness and ability needed to be enhanced. In 2026, China will continue its proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. Sino - US relations may enter a relatively stable period, and China's demand will shift to domestic consumption [17][18]. 3. Supply Analysis 3.1 Tightening Copper Ore Supply - In 2025, global copper ore supply was tight. The growth of copper ore output stagnated, and the capacity utilization rate dropped below 80%. The ICSG lowered the 2025 copper ore production growth rate from 2.3% to 1.4%, and it is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2026. The supply is affected by insufficient capital investment, declining ore grades, and frequent accidents. In 2026, copper ore supply will depend on existing projects, and any supply - demand imbalance will be reflected in prices [20][24]. 3.2 Transmission of Supply Pressure from Ore to Smelting - The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop significantly from 3.4% in 2025 to 0.9% in 2026. The shortage of copper concentrate has passed on cost pressure to the smelting industry. In 2025, the TC of copper concentrate dropped to below zero, and the long - term processing fee for 2026 was locked at zero. Chinese smelters plan to cut production by at least 10% in 2026, which will deepen the supply shortage [29][30]. 3.3 Substitution Effect of Scrap Copper - Scrap copper has a certain substitution effect on copper concentrate, but it cannot completely replace primary copper due to supply, technology, and capacity limitations. The 770th document in 2025 increased the cost of scrap - copper recycling, suppressing market enthusiasm. In 2026, it is difficult for scrap copper to expand [34][36]. 4. Demand Analysis - China is the largest consumer of refined copper, accounting for nearly 60% globally. The ICSG expects the global refined copper usage to grow by 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, with China's growth rate slowing down to 1% in 2026 [42]. 4.1 Power Industry - Copper demand in the power industry is driven by grid modernization, energy transformation, and new - energy power generation. In 2025, grid investment maintained positive growth, and new - energy power generation had a high growth rate. In 2026, grid investment is expected to remain high, and new - energy power generation will continue to support copper demand. The new - type energy - storage system also has great growth potential [45][46][47]. 4.2 Real Estate Industry - In 2025, the real estate industry's adjustment suppressed copper demand. In 2026, the industry's growth logic is shifting, but it is difficult to make up for the demand gap in the short term [49][50]. 4.3 Home Appliance Industry - In 2025, the home appliance industry's demand showed a trend of low - then - high. Domestic demand was stimulated by policies in the first half of the year but weakened later. Exports were under pressure due to US tariffs and overseas demand contraction. In 2026, domestic sales may not grow without new policies, while overseas production capacity is expected to be released [53][54]. 4.4 Automotive Industry - In 2025, China's automobile sales, especially new - energy vehicle sales, increased significantly. Domestic sales were stimulated by the trade - in policy, and exports showed a diversified pattern. In 2026, the automobile market growth will face pressure, with a predicted growth rate of about 2%, and new - energy vehicles will maintain strong momentum [56][60]. 4.5 New Direction - AI Data Centers - In 2025, AI data centers became a key variable in reshaping copper demand. The copper consumption in global data centers is expected to increase from about 500,000 tons in 2025 to 740,000 tons in 2026, with a compound high - growth rate of about 40% in the coming years. However, the demand intensity needs to be verified [61][62]. 5. Inventory Analysis - In 2025, global copper inventory shifted from non - US to US regions due to the expected US tariff policy. COMEX copper inventory increased by over 300%, while LME inventory decreased by 42%. In 2026, the implementation time of the US tariff policy will be a key factor affecting inventory flow and copper prices [66]. 6. Outlook for 2026 - Copper prices are expected to operate at a high level, and the center of gravity may move upward. The upward momentum comes from macro - liquidity and supply - side gaps. However, risks include unexpected policy changes and lower - than - expected downstream consumption growth [68][69].