宽幅震荡，大周期不变

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global economy may still be in a slow recovery state. Although the US mid - term elections may temporarily reduce international geopolitical conflicts, the long - term upward trend of precious metals is still supported, but there may be a process of phased shock adjustment and re - accumulation of momentum. Precious metals should focus on structural opportunities in 2026 [3]. - The factors driving the rise of gold in 2026, such as central bank gold purchases and individual gold purchases for hedging, may still exist. The upward factors of gold are more than the downward factors, and the gold price trend may still be a structural market that is easy to rise and difficult to fall [3]. - The supply - demand tight - balance structure of silver still exists in 2026. The US economic downward pressure, combined with interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, will increase market risk appetite and be beneficial to silver. Silver may passively follow the fluctuations of gold, with a relatively large amplitude and overall stronger than gold [3]. - In the long - term (5 - 10 years), the upward cycle of precious metals may not end, but in 2026, there may be phased structural markets with strong wide - range shock characteristics [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: 2025 Precious Metals Trend Review - COMEX gold and silver futures showed a unilateral upward trend in 2025. Gold rose 64.03% from 2641.0 points on January 2 to 4332.2 points on December 16. Silver rose 117.65% from 2931.0 points on January 2 to 6379.5 points on December 16, showing an obvious catch - up trend [8][12]. - The price trend of gold in 2025 can be divided into four stages: the first stage from January 2 to April 22 was driven by Trump's re - election and tariff policies; the second stage from April 22 to August 19 was a shock period waiting for the situation to clear; the third stage from August 21 to October 17 was the second - round upward trend driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; the fourth stage from October 20 onwards was a phased top - seeking process [8][9]. - The price trend of silver in 2025 was different from that of gold. It was in a wide - range shock in the first half of the year and started a catch - up trend after the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October [12][14]. Chapter 2: International Political and Economic Pattern Analysis 2.1 Global Economic Recovery is Slow - The IMF's October 2025 forecast shows that the global economic growth in 2025 is 3.20%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with the July forecast, but the forecast for 2026 is 3.10%, the same as the July forecast. The IMF's view on the 2026 global economy has become more pessimistic in the second half of 2025 [17]. - The global economic policy uncertainty remains at a high level, reaching the level around the 2020 pandemic. In 2026, the great changes unseen in a century may accelerate, and the world political and economic pattern may still be in a process of turbulent evolution with high uncertainty [20]. 2.2 Global Central Bank Policies Continue to Diverge - In 2025, the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England were in the interest - rate cut cycle, while the Bank of Japan was in the interest - rate hike cycle, and the People's Bank of China implemented loose policies. In 2026, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates, and the People's Bank of China will probably maintain a loose monetary policy [21][22]. - The inflation trends of major developed economies are also different. The inflation in the US and the eurozone is on the rise, while the inflation in the UK and Japan is on the decline. The different policies of central banks will affect the US dollar index and increase the positive factors for precious metals [24]. 2.3 US Mid - term Elections, Uncertainty Still Exists - In 2026, the US will hold mid - term elections. The market expects that Trump may lose the control of the House of Representatives. To maintain support, Trump may choose to ease domestic and foreign contradictions, and the Sino - US game may ease temporarily [25]. - There are three possible results of the US mid - term elections. If the Republicans control both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the risk - aversion sentiment may push up precious metals; if the Republicans lose both, the global economic and political situation will be more complex and difficult to predict [27]. Chapter 3: US Treasury Yield and US Dollar Index 3.1 US Economic Analysis - In 2025, US consumption showed a high - level shock, with an expanding amplitude. Although the consumption was still at a relatively high level after the pandemic, the consumption ability decreased due to the increase in inflation. The consumption potential has been under pressure since May 2025 and has a risk of further decline [29]. - In terms of production and investment, the new orders of the US manufacturing industry increased continuously, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained at a relatively high level, indicating the recovery of the manufacturing industry. The real estate investment has limited impact on the economy [31][34]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield Analysis - The relationship between precious metals and the US dollar showed a reverse trend overall in 2025, but there were also periods of simultaneous rise and fall. The analysis of the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yield is still an important framework for analyzing precious metals [36]. - The US economy showed good resilience in 2025, but there was a downward pressure. The inflation pressure weakened, but the inflation data and inflation expectations showed a certain divergence. In 2026, factors such as the Fed's independence, oil price trends, and economic control need to be paid attention to [37][43]. 3.3 US Dollar Exchange Rate Analysis - The precious metals are naturally related to the US dollar. The US dollar index is an important variable for tracking precious metal prices. The economic conditions and central bank policies of major developed economies are different, and the US dollar may be under pressure in 2026, which provides certain support for precious metals [44]. - The Fed will face the replacement of the chairman in 2026. It is expected that the Fed will still cut interest rates slowly, and the trend of the US dollar index will be complex, with many uncertainties in its impact on gold [47]. Chapter 4: RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB exchange rate generally follows the US dollar index, but in the second half of 2025, the reverse relationship with the US dollar index weakened, and the RMB appreciated independently. In 2026, the RMB may continue to appreciate slowly, and the impact on gold prices is limited [48]. - The Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed in the second half of 2025, and there is a possibility of further narrowing. If the People's Bank of China also cuts interest rates, the spread may maintain a narrow - range shock, and the impact on the exchange rate is limited [49]. Chapter 5: Institutional Position Analysis - For gold, the total holdings of gold ETFs increased significantly in July 2024 and decreased slightly in February 2025. The non - commercial long - position ratio of gold in COMEX is still relatively high, but there is a downward trend. The speculative position ratio decreased, and the hedging position ratio increased, strengthening the commodity attribute of gold [51]. - For silver, the total holdings of silver ETFs have been increasing since February 2019 and are currently at a high level. The non - commercial long - position ratio of silver in COMEX increased slowly from October 21, 2025, and decreased on December 9. The long - position ratio of silver is not very high, and the basis for its rise may not be very solid [52]. Chapter 6: Conclusion and Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle in 2026 has many constraints, and the support for gold from the interest - rate cut cycle may be limited. The result of the US mid - term elections will determine the intensity of international geopolitical games. In 2026, the probability of a unilateral trend in the gold market is low, and it is more likely to be a structural market [55]. - In 2026, the rise of the gold price may slow down. Silver may passively follow the fluctuations of gold. Due to the tight supply - demand balance, silver will continue to be driven by both financial and industrial attributes, and there may be a certain correction but still a relatively certain structural market, and it may outperform gold [56].