2026年沪铝年报：极盛终有尽，利敛待新衡

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core Viewpoints - In 2026, Shanghai aluminum prices are at a relatively high level, and the high - profit situation is unsustainable. The market will shift from a tight - balance state to a substantial surplus, and the industry profit will return to a reasonable level. Investors should be cautious and wait for important nodes. [4][45] - The long - term bull market in the Shanghai aluminum market since 2015 is facing the key test of the economic cycle transformation, and 2026 is likely to be an important turning point, with high prices and high volatility as its core characteristics. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From a long - term perspective, 2026 may be an important node in this round of the aluminum price bull market, and there is a risk of a large - scale bear market. In 2025, Shanghai aluminum showed a steady upward trend in shock, breaking through the previous high, but the price is under pressure. [8] - In 2025, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum can be divided into three stages: from January to mid - March, it oscillated upward; from mid - March to early April, it had a deep correction; from early April to December, it oscillated upward again and hit a new high. [9][10][11] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - Globally, the supply of primary aluminum continued in a tight - balance pattern in 2025, with the supply growth rate slowing down. The main constraint was China's strict production capacity ceiling policy, and overseas markets also faced multiple challenges. [15] - In China, policies strictly controlled production capacity, and supply lacked elasticity. The development of the scrap aluminum and recycled aluminum markets was incomplete, and the primary aluminum supply remained rigid. [17] - China's net import of electrolytic aluminum continued, with Russian aluminum dominating the import pattern. In the future, the growth rate of the net import scale may decline marginally. [20] Demand - side - Traditional construction consumption industries were under pressure. The real estate industry had a negative impact on the demand for aluminum in construction, and the demand proportion was decreasing year by year. [24] - Emerging fields still had resilience. The transportation field, especially new - energy - related areas, became the main growth point of aluminum demand, and the aluminum consumption scale in transportation was expected to exceed that in traditional construction in the future. [25] 3. Inventory Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was at a relatively low level, providing support for aluminum prices. The inventory might face a transformation between accumulation and depletion, and was affected by seasonal factors and supply - demand fundamentals. [31][33] - In 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated complexly, experiencing seasonal accumulation in the first quarter, continuous depletion in the second quarter, re - accumulation in the third quarter, and high - level oscillation in the fourth quarter. [32] 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry maintained high profits, but many factors supporting high profits were unsustainable. As the market shifted to a substantial surplus and inventory accumulated, the high profits would be squeezed out through price decline and cost collapse. [36] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum market is expected to shift from a tight - balance state from 2021 - 2023 to a small - scale surplus pattern after 2024, and the surplus will expand. The total consumption growth rate will show a downward trend, and the core contradiction in the future market will be the balance between the rigid growth of supply and the slow - down of demand growth under structural transformation. [40] 6. Summary and Outlook 2025 Shanghai Aluminum Market Summary - In 2025, the Shanghai aluminum market showed strong resilience. The price fluctuated widely in the range of 19,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, with a lower volatility than in 2024. [44] - The supply rigidity increased, the demand was structurally differentiated, the low - inventory state was normalized, and the cost center moved down but remained at a relatively high level. [44] 2026 Shanghai Aluminum Market Outlook - In 2026, the high price and high profit of Shanghai aluminum are unsustainable. The market will turn to a substantial surplus, and the price will face challenges. [45] - The price will be under pressure from inventory accumulation and cost collapse. It is recommended that investors be cautious, avoid chasing high prices, and pay close attention to inventory turning points and cost - line verification. [46]