五矿期货黑色建材日报 2026-01-07-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel price is expected to continue to operate within the bottom range, and the winter storage participation willingness is still cautious [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The upper space is restricted by high inventory and supply - easing expectations, while the lower space is supported by restocking expectations [5]. - The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon may continue to be affected by the overall market sentiment. Future market contradictions mainly lie in the direction of the black - metal sector and cost - push and supply - contraction issues [10][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. It is currently supported by market sentiment, but its own fundamentals are weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory [14][15]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the market is in a state of continuous game. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - The glass price may have further upward potential, and it is recommended to focus on the price range of 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [20]. - For soda ash, it is recommended to consider short - selling at the price range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.225%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.5629 million lots, up 14,597 lots. The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.461%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,588 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.2741 million lots, down 20,441 lots. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, with no change; in Shanghai, it was 3260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Strategy Views - The overall commodity market sentiment is good, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The rebar output increased slightly this week, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils increased significantly, the apparent demand strengthened slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to continue to operate within the bottom range, and the winter storage participation willingness is still cautious [3]. Iron Ore - Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The position changed by +22,093 lots to 640,900 lots. The weighted position was 975,200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 813 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.31% [4]. - Strategy Views - The supply of iron ore decreased as the year - end shipping rush of mines ended. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined. The near - end arrival volume increased. The demand side saw a slight increase in the daily average hot - metal output. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but was still at a low level in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, with the upper space restricted by high inventory and supply - easing expectations and the lower space supported by restocking expectations [5]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Quotes - On January 6th, affected by the news of differential electricity prices, the ferrosilicon futures price rose sharply, driving the manganese - silicon price up. The main contract of manganese - silicon (SM603) closed up 0.75% at 5918 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5920 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 2 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 2.70% at 5776 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Views - Since December, the overall market sentiment has been positive. The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon may continue to be affected by the overall market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future market contradictions mainly lie in the direction of the black - metal sector and cost - push and supply - contraction issues [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8900 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.95% (+170). The weighted contract position changed by +18,638 lots to 361,170 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the main contract was 300 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - Strategy Views - The price of industrial silicon is affected by the overall market sentiment and is expected to fluctuate. Its own fundamentals are weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is mainly supported by silicon enterprises' production cuts [14][15]. - Polysilicon - Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 59365 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.23% (+720). The weighted contract position changed by - 4451 lots to 125,510 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, up 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 53.5 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 5865 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy Views - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure still exists. The prices of all links in the industrial chain have increased, but the downstream transactions are relatively light. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Quotes - The main contract of glass closed at 1092 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.02% (+11). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1000 yuan, with no change; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (-3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 208 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 227 short positions [19]. - Strategy Views - In December, the glass supply decreased, but the inventory was still relatively abundant. The demand decreased in winter. The market lacks substantial demand recovery or policy support. The glass price may have further upward potential, and it is recommended to focus on the price range of 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [20]. - Soda Ash - Market Quotes - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1190 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.10% (+13). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (-3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light - soda ash inventory, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 740 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 976 short positions [21]. - Strategy Views - In December, the domestic soda - ash market showed a narrow - range consolidation trend. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The supply - surplus pattern has not changed fundamentally. It is recommended to consider short - selling at the price range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [23].