华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term [2][4][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - The production enterprises of short - process construction steel in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected impact on the total output of construction steel of 741,000 tons [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center [4] - The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong performance. Macroscopically, Fed officials had different statements, and the federal funds rate futures market still believes that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at the next meeting from January 27th to 28th is about 82% [3] - As of January 6, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.65 per ton, a decrease of $0.41 per ton from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in the intended transaction price of both buyers and sellers compared with the previous period [4] - The average CIF price of SMM Guinea bauxite was reported at $65 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton from the previous trading day [4] - In the domestic bauxite market, the tight supply in the north and the continuous weakening of alumina prices are in a game. Currently, alumina plants have a low willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium, and the domestic bauxite price is expected to have some downward space [4] - In the imported bauxite market, there are still differences in the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers recently. The long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas also provides support for the long - term supply [4] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% compared with the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [4] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have started to accumulate, breaking through the two integer thresholds of 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The cumulative inventory increase at the end of December compared with the inventory on December 18 was close to 15% [4] - The continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots is mainly due to the superposition of four factors: "increased arrival of supply, weak digestion on the demand side, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" [4] - Driven by the boost of macro - sentiment and the fermentation of geopolitical risks, the price is strong at a high level. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival. Be vigilant against the high - price risk and pay attention to the continuity of macro - enthusiasm and downstream feedback [5]