碳酸锂：市场热度保持高位区间震荡向上，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate [1][2] - The market for lithium carbonate remains hot, and its price is expected to fluctuate upward in a range, focusing on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures opened more than 4% higher, hit an 8.99% daily limit in the afternoon and closed at that level. The main contract closed at 137,940 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 304,200 lots and open interest increasing to 535,000 lots. The main net short position pattern continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [1] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon was 127,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 10,440 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. After the price increase, the market is in a state where upstream suppliers are reluctant to sell and downstream buyers are afraid of high prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the supply side further released production capacity. The cost - side support continued to strengthen, and the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise [2] - There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory reduction, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal have reached a high level, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand [2] - In terms of inventory, last week, the SMM sample's total weekly inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the de - stocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as last week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [2] - At the policy level, the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the 14th Five - Year Plan for Energy Storage, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations [3] - On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and the news of mine resumption has an impact. The upward driving force still exists, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply and demand [3]