国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each product [2]. - Different products have different market outlooks, such as short - term high - level consolidation, upward movement of the central price range, and limited upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Trends: PX is in a short - term high - level consolidation market; PTA is in a high - level consolidation market; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure [2][4]. - Fundamentals: PX domestic supply increases, PTA device restarts, and MEG has high domestic supply and increasing port arrivals [5][7][8]. - Investment Suggestions: PX holds positive spreads; PTA maintains positive spreads; MEG conducts reverse spreads on monthly spreads [7][8]. Rubber - Market Trends: The rubber market is oscillating strongly [2][9]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and overseas raw material prices rise [9]. - Industry News: Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increases, and domestic production areas enter the off - season [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Trends: The short - term central price range moves upward [2][12]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, trading volumes increase, and the price of raw material butadiene goes up [12]. - Industry News: The inventory of domestic butadiene in ports increases, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreases [13]. LLDPE - Market Trends: The standard product production decreases, and the spot is firm [2][15]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the inventory shifts to the middle - stream [15]. - Market Analysis: The raw material price stabilizes and rebounds, and the supply and demand face medium - term pressure [16]. PP - Market Trends: There are few ongoing maintenance projects, and the basis weakens passively [2][18]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the spot sales pressure is moderate [18]. - Market Analysis: The cost is high, the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals have limited support [19]. Caustic Soda - Market Trends: It is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [2][20]. - Fundamentals: The spot price is weakly stable [21]. - Market Analysis: The short - term decline is limited, and there may be a short - term rebound, but the overall supply and demand situation is not optimistic [22]. Pulp - Market Trends: The pulp market is oscillating strongly [2][25]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the price of broad - leaf pulp increases [27][28]. - Industry News: The downstream demand is rigid, and the price of household paper may be range - bound [29]. Glass - Market Trends: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][30]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise slightly, and the spot price is stable [31]. - Market Analysis: The holiday atmosphere is strong, and the sales of enterprises are average [31]. Methanol - Market Trends: It is strong in the short - term [2][33]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions increase, and the spot price rises in some regions [34][36]. - Market Analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [37]. Urea - Market Trends: The central price range moves upward [2][38]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the inventory of enterprises decreases [39][40]. - Market Analysis: The demand improvement drives the price up, but the upward strength needs dynamic observation [41]. Styrene - Market Trends: It is in short - term oscillation [2][45]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the current valuation is high [43][44]. - Market Analysis: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. Soda Ash - Market Trends: The spot market changes little [2][47]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise slightly, and the supply is high while the demand is tepid [48]. LPG, Propylene - Market Trends: LPG has a firm import cost, and propylene's demand is stable with a slight price increase [2][51]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the operating rates of relevant industries change [51]. PVC - Market Trends: It is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space [2][59]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [60]. - Market Analysis: Cost support and maintenance expectations drive the price up, but high inventory and weak demand limit the increase [61]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Trends: Fuel oil turns strong and is prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term; low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend [2][64]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the spot price increases [64]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Market Trends: The 02 contract subsidizes the premium, and the far - month contracts focus on premium subsidies and geopolitical events [2][66]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the shipping capacity and freight rates change [66][72]. - Market Analysis: The valuation of the 02 contract rises, and the 04 contract may provide a suitable short - selling ratio after the premium subsidy [73][74]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Market Trends: They are in short - term oscillation [2][76]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices and spot prices change, and the short - fiber sales rate improves [76]. Offset Printing Paper - Market Trends: It is advisable to wait and see [2][79]. - Fundamentals: The spot price is stable, and the cost and profit change slightly [79]. - Market Analysis: The market demand is weak, and the trading is light [80][82]. Pure Benzene - Market Trends: It is in short - term oscillation [2][83]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rise, and the port inventory increases [83][84].