国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260107

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - Gold is influenced by rising risk - aversion sentiment [2] - Silver is expected to break new highs [2] - Copper prices are strong due to the boost in computing power demand [2] - Zinc is running on the stronger side [2] - The decrease in LME lead inventory supports its price [2] - Tin is in a range - bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum is oscillating on the stronger side, alumina has rebounded significantly, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, and stainless steel is dragged by the real - world fundamentals with the market mainly gambling on Indonesian policies [2] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Gold: The prices of domestic gold futures contracts like Shanghai Gold 2602 and Gold T + D declined, while Comex Gold 2602 rose slightly. Trading volume and positions changed, with ETF positions remaining stable. There are geopolitical news such as the Trump administration discussing plans to acquire Greenland. The trend strength is 1 [2][4][6] - Silver: Domestic silver futures prices like Shanghai Silver 2602 and Silver T + D decreased, while Comex Silver 2602 increased significantly. Trading volume and positions changed, and inventory decreased. The trend strength is 1 [2][4][6] Copper - Price and Trading: The Shanghai copper main contract and LME copper 3M electronic disk prices rose. Trading volume and positions increased. Futures inventory rose, and the cancellation warrant ratio decreased [8] - News: The Trump administration is discussing plans for Greenland, and NVIDIA's CFO expects higher data - center chip revenue. The 2025 copper - ore imports in China increased, and there are developments in copper mines and smelters in Chile and other places. The trend strength is 2 [8][10] Zinc - Price and Market Data: Shanghai and LME zinc prices rose. Trading volume, positions, and some spot prices increased, while inventory decreased. There are news about China's trade and monetary policies. The trend strength is 1 [11][12][13] Lead - Price and Inventory: Shanghai and LME lead prices rose. Trading volume increased, positions changed, spot premiums increased, and LME inventory decreased. There are geopolitical news and expectations of high data - center chip revenue. The trend strength is 1 [14] Tin - Price and Market: Shanghai and LME tin prices increased significantly. Trading volume and positions changed, and inventory decreased. There are macro and industry news such as the Fed's stance and new stock listings. The trend strength is 1 [16][17][18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Market Data: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed various trends. Trading volume, positions, inventory, and other data changed. There are news about the Fed's internal differences and Venezuelan political issues. The trend strength for all three is 1 [20][21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Industry News: Nickel and stainless - steel prices changed. There are multiple industry news in Indonesia, including restrictions on new smelting licenses, changes in nickel - ore production targets, and potential fines for illegal land use. The trend strength for both is 0 [22][23][25]