光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月7日）-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is weak, and the market's long - position funds are lackluster. The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Specifically, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to be in a state of oscillation. [1][2][4][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views 1.1 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices dropped again. The WTI February contract closed down $1.19 to $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 2.04%. The Brent March contract closed down $1.06 to $60.70 per barrel, a decline of 1.72%. The SC2602 contract closed at 426.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.28%. - API data shows that last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.766 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.747 million barrels in the previous week. API Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 665,000 barrels, with the previous value being an increase of 84,500 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.41 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.926 million barrels. - The U.S. and Venezuela are discussing the export of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. There is an expectation that Venezuelan oil supply and logistics may be re - structured, and the total supply is expected to increase. [1] 1.2 Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.73% to 2,479 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.27% to 2,925 yuan per ton. - In the supply side, Singapore is expected to receive a stable arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes and blending components in the next few weeks, which will continuously increase the local inventory. The high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore will also continue to increase. It is expected that the overall fuel oil supply in Singapore will be in surplus in January. - In the demand side, the bunkering demand for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is weak due to holidays, while the high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering demand remains strong. [2] 1.3 Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.35% to 3,144 yuan per ton. - The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports has remained stable in the short term. The raw material supply of domestic refineries in January is not directly affected by the U.S. - Venezuela geopolitical event, but there are fewer cargoes in January - February. The far - month discount quotation of diluted asphalt has rebounded slightly, and there is uncertainty in future raw material supply. - The release of winter storage contracts by major refineries provides some bottom support for the market. It is expected that the asphalt price will be stable and slightly stronger. [2][4] 1.4 Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,150 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.06%. EG2605 closed at 3,838 yuan per ton, up 2.84%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7,336 yuan per ton, up 1.75%. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are individually differentiated, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. There is a game between the reality and expectation of PX. The polyester operating load may further decline in January - February. The supply of ethylene glycol has slightly narrowed, the demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate. [4] 1.5 Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 260 yuan per ton to 16,050 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 205 yuan per ton to 13,010 yuan per ton. - As of the week of January 2, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 451,200 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 3.99%. The inventory in the bonded area of Qingdao was 93,100 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous period, an increase of 8.89%. - The precipitation in the producing areas has eased, the overseas peak - production season has more than one month left, the raw material prices are still supported, the downstream tire demand has weakened, and the end - of - year automobile policies are waiting for new policies. It is expected that the rubber price will oscillate. [4][6] 1.6 Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,268 yuan per ton. The supply in January is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume will decline from the high level. In terms of demand, the Ningbo Fude plant is expected to be under maintenance until mid - January, but the new Shandong Lianhong plant is operating normally, and the total olefin demand is expected to have some support. - The decline in Iranian shipments will lead to a decline in arrivals in January, which will support the price, while the profit of MTO plants is currently being continuously compressed, which may form a negative feedback. It is expected that methanol will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [6] 1.7 Polyolefin - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,180 - 6,380 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, there will be some temporary maintenance and shutdown actions in some upstream plants in January, especially PDH plants, and there are no new production capacity investment plans, so the supply is expected to decrease slightly. - In terms of demand, in early January, it will be supported by post - New Year's Day replenishment and pre - Spring Festival order rush. In late January, downstream factories will gradually shut down. It is expected that the polyolefin will still oscillate at the bottom. [6][8] 1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the prices of the PVC market in East, North, and South China all increased. The overall supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The 05 contract is still at a large premium. The PVC market shows a structure of weak reality and strong expectation, and the upward space is limited. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation. [8] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides daily data monitoring on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3. Market News - PVM Oil Company's Tamas Varga said it is too early to assess the impact of Maduro's arrest on the oil supply - demand balance, but it is obvious that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026. A December survey of market participants showed that respondents expect oil prices to face downward pressure in 2026 due to increased supply and weak demand. - API data shows the changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, gasoline inventories, and distillate inventories last week. [12] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report provides line charts of the basis of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [31][33][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts for multiple energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][44][47] 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report provides line charts of the spreads between different varieties and the ratios of different varieties for multiple energy and chemical products, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [58][60][62] 4.5 Production Profits - The report provides line charts of the production profits and processing fees of multiple energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, etc. [66][68][69] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the research team members, including the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, including their educational background, honors, and work experience. [71][72][73] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127. [76]