光大期货金融期货日报-20260107

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the stock index is "volatile", and for the treasury bond is "relatively strong" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The market showed an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. The CSI A500 index rose over 2%, reaching a new high since January 2022. The A500ETF had significant net subscriptions, while the net short positions of the top 5 member units in IF increased. The relevant funds may not have significant net outflows after the New Year. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain within the oscillation range formed since October. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of the constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 in the third quarter was about 2.6%, which supports the current valuation and reduces the risk of liquidity. The spring rally may not be as intense as in previous years [1] - The main contracts of treasury bonds declined on Tuesday. The central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan. The short - term money market is reasonably abundant, which is the biggest support for the bond market, but the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [1][2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2026 - 01 - 06 Price | 2026 - 01 - 05 Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3,161.8 | 3,098.8 | 63.0 | 2.03% | | IF | 4,778.0 | 4,697.0 | 81.0 | 1.72% | | IC | 7,786.4 | 7,596.0 | 190.4 | 2.51% | | IM | 7,762.4 | 7,639.0 | 123.4 | 1.62% | [3] Stock Indexes | Variety | 2026 - 01 - 06 Price | 2026 - 01 - 05 Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 3,158.8 | 3,099.7 | 59.0 | 1.90% | | CSI 300 | 4,790.7 | 4,717.7 | 72.9 | 1.55% | | CSI 500 | 7,814.1 | 7,651.2 | 162.9 | 2.13% | | CSI 1000 | 7,864.9 | 7,753.9 | 111.0 | 1.43% | [3] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2026 - 01 - 06 Price | 2026 - 01 - 05 Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.37 | 102.41 | - 0.048 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.57 | 105.71 | - 0.135 | - 0.13% | | T | 107.70 | 107.86 | - 0.155 | - 0.14% | | TL | 110.93 | 111.32 | - 0.39 | - 0.35% | [3] Group 4: Market News - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index had 13 consecutive positive days, reaching a ten - year high, with a 1.5% increase. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 260.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The brain - computer interface sector had a daily limit surge, and sectors such as insurance, securities, and non - ferrous metals were also strong [4] - From 2024 to 2025, China achieved 18.3 million units of automobile trade - ins, with new energy vehicles accounting for nearly 60%, and 192 million units of home appliance trade - ins, with first - level energy - efficiency (water - efficiency) products accounting for over 90%. The trade - in policy drove consumer sales of 3.92 trillion yuan, benefiting 494 million consumers [4] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [5][6][7] Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - term treasury bond futures, inter - period spreads of different - term treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [12][13][14] Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - yen exchange rate [21][22][23]