2025信用月报之十二：基金费率新规落地，信用债怎么配-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the credit - bond market may gradually recover with the implementation of the new fund sales fee regulations, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand may restrict its performance. It is recommended to focus on varieties within 3 years, with a leveraged strategy to increase returns, and also pay attention to the potential demand for 5 - year varieties driven by amortized bond funds [1][2][3]. - After the implementation of the new regulations, the second - tier and perpetual bonds of large banks may experience a recovery. Since the second half of 2025, these bonds have significantly over - declined compared to general credit bonds, but the new regulations' formal release may ease market concerns and promote their recovery [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Short - term Bonds as a Shield, 4 - 5 - year Large Bank Second - tier and Perpetual Bonds as a Spear - January Credit - Bond Supply - Demand Situation and Investment Focus: In December 2025, due to factors such as changes in the expectation of broad money, concerns about ultra - long bond supply, and new fund sales regulations, the long - end interest rate was weak, and the credit - bond market showed a "short - strong, long - weak, high - rating dominant" structural market. In January 2026, the credit - bond market may recover, but the supply - demand pattern will be strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on varieties within 3 years, with short - duration sinking for urban investment bonds, and also pay attention to 4.5 - 5.5 - year public non - perpetual bonds [1][2][3]. - Recovery of Second - tier and Perpetual Bonds: Since the second half of 2025, the medium - and long - term second - tier and perpetual bonds of large banks have significantly over - declined compared to general credit bonds. After the formal release of the new regulations on December 31, 2025, market concerns may ease, and these bonds may experience a recovery. Currently, the 4 - 5 - year large - bank second - tier and perpetual bonds have higher holding - period yields than general credit bonds, with the 4 - year variety being more cost - effective [4][5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, and Long - Duration Transaction Activity Declined - December Issuance and Net Financing: In December 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance of short - duration bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased across the board, with a larger increase for medium - and long - duration bonds. The performance was divided, with the yields of medium - and high - grade bonds within 5Y and low - grade bonds within 3Y generally declining, and the spreads of 1Y short - duration and 5Y low - grade bonds widening significantly [41]. - Provincial - Level Performance: The net financing performance of each province in December was divided, with half of the provinces having negative net financing. The yields of public urban investment bonds in each province generally increased, with Liaoning and Yunnan performing worse [45][50]. - Transaction Activity: In December, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds was still weak, with the overall TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio slightly decreasing. The long - duration transaction activity declined, and the AA(2) transaction ratio decreased, while the AA + ratio increased [53]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Increased Significantly, and the Short - Duration Issuance Ratio Increased Significantly - December Issuance and Net Financing: In December 2025, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. The issuance of short - duration bonds increased significantly, and the issuance interest rate increased across the board, with a larger increase for 3 - 5 - year bonds. The spreads generally widened, with long - duration varieties performing worse [56][57][59]. - Industry - Level Yield Performance: The yields of public bonds in various industries generally decreased slightly. Among industries with over 50 billion yuan in outstanding public bonds, the public utilities and transportation industries performed well with a 2bp yield decline, while the real estate industry's yield increased significantly by 10bp [62]. 3.4 Bank Second - tier and Perpetual Bonds: Supply Increased, and Medium - and Long - Duration Yields Mostly Increased - December Supply and Net Financing: In December 2025, the supply of bank second - tier and perpetual bonds increased significantly, with the increase mainly coming from second - tier capital bonds. The issuance and net financing both increased significantly year - on - year [65]. - Yield and Spread Performance: The yields of bank second - tier and perpetual bonds were divided, with medium - and long - term second - tier capital bonds performing worse. The spreads generally widened, except for the 5Y AAA - and 2Y AA - perpetual bonds. Compared with medium - and short - term notes, AA and above second - tier and perpetual bonds performed weakly [69]. - Transaction Activity: The number of transactions of bank second - tier and perpetual bonds increased month - on - month, but the trading sentiment was still weak. The TKN ratios of second - tier capital bonds and perpetual bonds were 62% and 56% respectively, and the low - valuation ratios increased by 8pct and 3pct respectively. The transactions of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks were mainly concentrated in 3 - 5 - year medium - and long - duration varieties, while the trading sentiment of city commercial banks was weak, and the transactions showed a trend of extending duration [74].