2026钢材年度报告：钢材供需双弱，价格继续震荡筑底

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, domestic policies will focus on balancing "counter-cyclical" and "cross-cyclical" adjustments, with resources concentrated on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new productive forces, presenting a "fiscal-led, monetary-assisted" pattern [2][8][58] - The overall demand for steel is expected to remain basically flat, with manufacturing demand having resilience but a high-base slowdown in growth, construction demand continuing to decline but at a slower pace, and indirect exports performing better than direct exports with a high-base slowdown in growth [2][58] - The steel supply capacity cycle shows signs of peaking, but due to insufficient demand, "anti-involution" efforts need to be further strengthened. The steel product structure will continue to optimize, alleviating the contradiction of total overcapacity, and the comprehensive profits of steel mills will continue to improve. However, before the demand turns around, the production mode based on demand will be maintained to seek a weak balance [2][58] - In 2026, the steel supply and demand will still be relatively loose, with limited elasticity on the supply side under production control, continuous cost and inventory pressure, and steel prices are likely to continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is estimated that the main operating range of rebar in 2026 will be between 2,700 - 3,350 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coils will be between 2,850 - 3,500 yuan/ton [2][58] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Steel Trends in 2025 - The steel price trend in 2025 was volatile, with the overall price center of gravity moving downward. From January to June, domestic demand was weak, the overseas trade environment deteriorated, and steel prices and furnace materials declined together. From June to July, steel prices gradually stabilized and rebounded rapidly under multiple factors. From August to October, the "high price, low demand" contradiction was prominent, and steel prices gradually declined. From October to the present, steel prices showed an oscillating and weak trend [5][6] Chapter 2: Outlook for the Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - 2.1 The First Year of the 15th Five-Year Plan: Stabilize Growth and Expand Domestic Demand: In 2026, economic policies will emphasize strategic focus and precise efforts, with policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and cultivating new productive forces. Monetary policy operations may be more cautious, balancing the relationship between reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and exchange rate stability [8] - 2.2 Policy Aspect: Fiscal Policy as the Mainstay and Monetary Policy as a Supplement: Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive" with more precise focus, with a projected deficit rate of 4% and a deficit scale of 5.9 trillion yuan, and special bond quotas of 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan. Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" tone but be more cautious in operation, with at least one reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expected in 2026, and the focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and green fields [9][10] - 2.3 The Possibility of Spillover Risks in the Real Estate Market Has Significantly Decreased: Policy priorities may have shifted, and the risk positioning of the real estate market may have changed from "key resolution" to "continuous prevention and control." Strong incremental policies are unlikely to be introduced, and the implementation of supportive policies will depend on the overall economic situation [17] - 2.4 "Anti-Involution" Policies May Enter the Implementation Stage: It is expected that relevant policies will enter the implementation stage in 2026, but the public attention may decrease, and policies will have priorities and be implemented in different industries at different times [18] Chapter 3: Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Plates and Weak Long Products - 3.1 The Decline in the Real Estate Sector Narrowed but It Remained a Drag: In 2025, real estate policies focused on risk prevention and market stabilization. From January to November, real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area decreased year-on-year. In 2026, the decline in major real estate indicators is expected to narrow, but steel demand in the real estate industry will continue to decline [22][23] - 3.2 Policies Will Continue to Provide Support, and Infrastructure Investment Is Expected to Recover: In 2025, infrastructure investment focused on structural optimization and strategic security, but overall performance was lower than expected. In 2026, infrastructure will continue to play a supporting role, with an expected investment growth rate of about 5%, and steel demand will be basically the same as in 2025 [27][28] - 3.3 Stable Growth in the Manufacturing Industry Supports Steel Demand: In 2025, the manufacturing industry showed better performance than the construction industry, with the production index rising above the boom-bust line. The automobile industry had high production and sales, and the mechanical industry was stable. In 2026, with the continuation of "two new" policies, the manufacturing industry will still have resilience, and steel demand is expected to increase by about 5% [30][34] - 3.4 Exports Will Remain at a High Level but the Growth Rate Is Expected to Slow Down: In 2025, China's steel exports reached a new high, while imports continued to decline. In 2026, due to intensified trade frictions and the recovery of overseas supply, the export growth rate is expected to slow down, but overall exports will remain at a high level [39][40] Chapter 4: Continued Promotion of "Anti-Involution" and Continuous Optimization of the Supply Structure - 4.1 Loose Raw Material Supply with Expected Average Price Decline: In 2026, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase slightly, and the price is expected to face downward pressure. The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slightly, and the price is expected to remain in an oscillating range [44][48] - 4.2 "Anti-Involution" Needs to Be Further Strengthened to Promote Industrial Structure Optimization: The steel mill capacity investment cycle shows signs of peaking. In 2026, the net increase in blast furnace capacity is 191 tons, the net decrease in converter capacity is 131 tons, and the net increase in electric furnace capacity is 451 tons. "Anti-involution" policies need to be further strengthened to promote the healthy development of the industrial structure [52] - 4.3 Steel Mill Profits Have Improved but Will Remain in a Slight Profit State: In 2025, the profitability of the steel industry was high in the first half and low in the second half, and it turned into a loss in the fourth quarter. In 2026, steel mills are expected to maintain a slight profit state, with demand under pressure and profit prospects not optimistic [55] Chapter 5: Outlook for the Steel Price Trend in 2026 - In 2026, steel supply and demand will remain relatively loose, with limited supply-side elasticity under production control, continuous cost and inventory pressure, and steel prices are likely to continue to oscillate at the bottom. It is estimated that the main operating range of rebar will be between 2,700 - 3,350 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coils will be between 2,850 - 3,500 yuan/ton [58]