Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the supply and demand of the rubber market are both relatively dull. The change in production is still subtle, with the uncertainty lying in Thailand's output, which is initially expected to be relatively stable. The vehicle market policy in 2026 is weaker than that in 2025, but thanks to the enhanced competitiveness of China's automobile industry, the automobile export market is still expected to be good. The tire export market may see a slight increase, while the replacement market faces relatively large pressure. Overall, the demand driving points are weak, and the supply variable depends on Thailand. If Thailand's output is lower than expected, the market will fluctuate upwards; if it is better than expected, the market will fluctuate at a low level [3][114]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - In 2025, the rubber market had weak supply and demand. Starting from the tapping expectation in early March, due to good weather in the producing areas and high finished - product inventories of Chinese tire enterprises, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were low, putting pressure on the rubber market. Influenced by the US tariff policy and the China - Thailand zero - tariff negotiation, the rubber market experienced two sharp drops. The rubber 09 contract futures fell from the highest 18,355 yuan/ton on February 21st to the lowest 13,295 yuan/ton on June 4th. The long production cycle of rubber led to repeated verification of its inflection point. Although rainfall increased and planting optimization measures improved single - yield, the demand was weak, and the rubber price fluctuated at a low level around 15,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [8]. Chapter 2: Rubber Supply Situation - Rubber Planting Total Area: As of 2025, the ANRPC rubber planting total area was 124.23 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Since 2016, the new planting area has been significantly reduced, and the total area has changed very little. It is expected to still have a slight change in 2026 [13]. - Rubber Tapping Area Growth Rate: The theoretical tappable area will have a low growth rate in the future. The 2025 tapping area growth rate was 1%, and the ANRPC expected the global natural rubber production in 2025 to increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons. The expected growth rate of the tapping area in 2026 is between - 0.06% and - 0.08%. Considering the aging of rubber trees and weather effects, the production in 2026 is expected to be under pressure or even decline [12]. - Main Producing Countries' Production Growth Rate: In 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons. In 2026, Indonesia and Malaysia have strong expectations of production reduction. The uncertainty of global production lies in Thailand's output (the expected reduction in southern Thailand is offset by the increase in central and northern Thailand) and the increment of Cote d'Ivoire. China's production is expected to increase slightly [3][12][114]. - Thailand: In 2025, the production increased slightly. The annual output is expected to reach 489 tons. In 2026, the total production may remain stable, with an expected narrow adjustment in the range of - 52,000 to + 80,000 tons [30][35]. - Indonesia: The production has been decreasing year by year. In 2025, the expected output was 2.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. In 2026, the production reduction expectation remains [36][40]. - Vietnam: The production growth potential may be hindered. In 2025, the output decreased slightly. In 2026, the production may be under pressure or even decline [41][45]. - Cote d'Ivoire: The production has been growing strongly. In 2025, the expected output was about 1.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. In 2026, the production is expected to be between 1.9 and 2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.5% - 11% [48][52]. - Main Producing Countries' Exports: In 2025, the exports of ANRPC member countries showed overall growth, internal differentiation, and explosive growth in exports to China. Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam all had significant increases in exports to China [56]. - China's Market: - Production: In 2025, the production was expected to reach 933,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In 2026, the production is expected to be about 992,800 tons, with a subsequent average annual growth rate of 4.5% [60][63]. - Import: In 2025, the import demand was strong. In 2026, the domestic import may maintain a good momentum, and Southeast Asia will still be the core import source [64][68]. - Inventory: The inventory pressure has decreased. Although there was a slight accumulation of inventory in November 2024, the overall inventory level is still lower than before [69]. Chapter 3: Rubber Consumption Situation - Domestic Automobile Production and Sales: In 2025, China's automobile market had a good growth trend. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles were 31.331 million and 31.127 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4%. The new energy vehicle market developed rapidly, with production and sales reaching 19.907 million and 17.88 million respectively from January to November, a year - on - year increase of over 31%, and a market penetration rate of about 57.5%. In 2026, the policy will be adjusted, but the export and new energy sectors are expected to continue to grow [81][84][91]. - Automobile Exports: In 2025, China's automobile exports maintained a strong growth momentum. From January to November, the export volume was 7.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. New energy vehicles were the highlight, with an export volume of 2.315 million from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 100%. In 2026, the export of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a high speed [87][90]. - Heavy Truck Domestic Sales and Exports: In 2025, the heavy - truck industry had significant breakthroughs in both domestic sales and exports. The annual wholesale sales reached 1.143 million, a year - on - year increase of 26.7%, and the export volume was expected to reach 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%. In 2026, the industry will continue to transform and upgrade [92][94]. - Replacement Market: In 2025, the freight volume and turnover growth rates were low, and the fixed - asset investment and new - house construction area decreased. The replacement market faced relatively large pressure [99][102]. - Operating Rates of All - Steel and Semi - Steel Tires: In 2025, the semi - steel tire operating rate was stable at around 70%, and the all - steel tire operating rate fluctuated at a low level and was weak at the end of the year. In 2026, the semi - steel tire operating rate will fluctuate around 70%, and the all - steel tire operating rate will have greater fluctuations, with the highest point in Q2 and a seasonal decline in Q4 [106][110]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Supply Side: The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2026 - 2030, and the aging of rubber trees in traditional producing countries is deepening. The production in 2026 is uncertain, mainly depending on Thailand's output, and Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to have production reductions [111]. - Demand Side: In 2026, the vehicle market policy is weaker, but the automobile export market is still expected to be good. The tire export market may have a slight increase, and the replacement market pressure is large [113]. - Investment Strategy: The supply and demand are both relatively dull. The market will fluctuate at a low level, and the supply variable depends on Thailand [114].
橡胶供需均较为平淡
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2026-01-07 02:38