Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2026-01-07 02:44Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, due to high - speed consumption growth, lithium carbonate is expected to shift from an oversupply situation to a tight - balance pattern. The smooth release of supply is likely under high - profit conditions, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of consumption [4][55]. - If the consumption end exceeds expectations and the supply end encounters force majeure, the short - term supply - demand may be tight. There is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of next year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may correct and return to the cost - pricing model. If consumption continues to exceed expectations and supply - side production falls short of expectations in the second half of the year, the lithium carbonate price is expected to strengthen further [4][55]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will range from 80,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026. As the overall industry oversupply narrows, the price center may rise, and the overall fluctuation range remains large [4][55]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Review of Lithium Carbonate Trends in 2025 - In 2025, lithium carbonate first declined and then rose. Before the mid - year, the price hit a low of 58,000 yuan per ton. After the mid - year, with the "anti - involution" policy and unexpected demand growth, the price accelerated upwards and reached 120,000 yuan per ton at the end of the year [7]. - From March to May, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of production at the Jiaxiaowo Mine, the decline in overseas Australian ore guide costs, and weak consumption led to inventory accumulation and bottom - building of the futures price [7]. - From May to July, under the "anti - involution" background, policies from the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology drove the futures price out of the bottom [8]. - In mid - and early August, the shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo Mine and the mining license issues of 8 mines in Jiangxi disturbed the market, causing the futures price to soar [8]. - From late August to mid - October, inventory gradually decreased, but high inventory suppressed the price, and trading sentiment faded [8]. - From late October to the end of the year, supply disruptions and a surge in energy - storage demand led to a significant shortage in supply - demand, and the futures price exceeded 120,000 yuan per ton [9]. Chapter 2: Outlook for the Domestic Macroeconomic Situation 2.1 The Beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan: Stabilize Growth and Expand Domestic Demand - In 2026, economic growth will be emphasized more. Policy strength is expected to be between that after September 2024 and that from July 2025 to the present [15]. 2.2 Policy: Fiscal Policy as the Mainstay and Monetary Policy as a Supplement - Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive", with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of about 5.9 trillion yuan. Special bond quotas are expected to be set at 4.5 - 5 trillion yuan. Fiscal policy will shift from "scale expansion" to "efficiency improvement" [17]. - Monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" tone but be more cautious in operation. There will be at least one round of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in 2026, with a reserve - requirement ratio cut of 0.25 - 0.5 percentage points and an interest - rate cut of 10 - 20 BP [17]. 2.3 The Possibility of Spill - over Risks in the Real Estate Market Has Significantly Decreased - In 2025, there were no strong national real - estate policies. The change in policy statements may indicate a shift in policy priorities and a change in risk positioning for the real - estate market [21]. 2.4 The "Anti - Involution" Policy May Enter the Implementation Stage - The "anti - involution" policy may enter the implementation stage in 2026, but the public - opinion enthusiasm may decrease, and policies will have priorities [23]. Chapter 3: Sufficient Production Capacity, and the Rising Lithium Price Center Stimulates Supply Elasticity 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production Capacity Remains Sufficient - In 2025, the overseas supply structure was significantly differentiated. Global lithium carbonate production - capacity layout is accelerating towards Western Australia, South America, and Africa. By the end of 2025, global lithium carbonate smelting capacity exceeded 2 million tons, with domestic capacity exceeding 1.5 million tons [25][26]. - In 2026, it is expected to be the last peak of this round of production - capacity expansion cycle, with new and upcoming projects having a total capacity of over 160,000 tons. Global lithium resource supply is expected to grow by about 30% [24]. 3.2 Slight Increase in Imports, with Significant Growth in Argentina This Year - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 23,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to October, the import volume was 196,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports from Argentina increased significantly [32]. 3.3 The Continuous Growth of Domestic Production Is Mainly Driven by Spodumene - In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 54.6%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 776,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%. The main driving force for production growth was spodumene [35]. 3.4 The Growth Rate of Lithium Ore Imports Is Slow, while Domestic Ore Production Continues to Increase Significantly - In September 2025, China's lithium concentrate import volume was 521,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38%. From January to September, the import volume was 4.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In October, China's lithium ore production was 20,050 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.2% [37][38]. Chapter 4: Strong Consumption Expectations, Attention to Realization 4.1 Strong Domestic Consumption Demand, with a Faster Energy - Transition Pace than the Global Average - In 2025, China's total lithium carbonate consumption was about 520,000 tons LCE, accounting for 76% of global demand. The Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu - Chongqing Economic Circle were the main consumption areas [41]. - In the domestic lithium carbonate consumption structure in 2025, power batteries accounted for about 74%, and energy - storage accounted for 18%, indicating a faster energy - transition pace than the global average [42]. 4.2 Power Batteries Remain Dominant, and the Proportion of Energy - Storage Continues to Increase - In 2025, in the global lithium carbonate demand structure, power batteries remained dominant, but the proportion of energy - storage and other emerging fields continued to increase. The demand for lithium carbonate from power batteries decreased from 82% in 2023 to 78% in 2025, while the energy - storage proportion increased from 11% to 15% [45]. 4.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate Has Become the Main Source of Growth in Lithium Carbonate Consumption - In 2025, lithium iron phosphate accounted for 82% of the demand in the downstream material structure of lithium carbonate, becoming the main source of growth in lithium carbonate consumption. The demand proportion of ternary materials decreased to 13%, and the combined proportion of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate was less than 5% [48]. Chapter 5: The Marginal Impact of Cost Reduction Weakens, and the Price Gradually Moves Away from the Bottom - The cost range of lithium carbonate is large. The cost of using salt - lake production is the lowest, at 30,000 - 50,000 yuan per ton. The cash cost of self - owned mine enterprises is 40,000 - 60,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of externally purchased ore is about 60,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The cost of the recycling end is the highest, about 100,000 - 200,000 yuan per ton [50]. - In 2026, the global lithium ore market is still in an oversupply situation, but the degree of oversupply has narrowed. The industry cycle is expected to shift from oversupply to tight - balance, and the price of lithium ore is unlikely to fall to the 2025 low [50]. Chapter 6: Outlook for the Lithium Carbonate Price Trend in 2026 - In 2026, due to high - speed consumption growth, lithium carbonate is expected to shift from an oversupply pattern to a tight - balance pattern. The smooth release of supply is likely under high - profit conditions. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of consumption [4][55]. - If consumption exceeds expectations and supply encounters force majeure, short - term supply - demand may be tight. There is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the first half of the year. If consumption fails to meet expectations, the price may correct. If consumption continues to exceed expectations and supply - side production falls short of expectations in the second half of the year, the price is expected to strengthen [4][55]. - It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will range from 80,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton in 2026, with a rising price center and large fluctuations [4][55].