PTA检修更主动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The concentrated shutdown and maintenance of PTA enterprises remain the main means to balance the market; some old facilities in countries such as Japan and South Korea still drag down the Asian operating rate, with concentrated maintenance in the second quarter. Therefore, PXN will continue to improve in the first half of the year and face pressure in the second half as new production capacity is put into operation. The strategy is to seize low - level long - position opportunities in the first half of the year and follow crude oil operations in the second half [4][122]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In 2025, PTA reached a high of around 5300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Then, due to seasonal inventory accumulation expectations in the first quarter, the market pressure increased, and the price declined. In the second quarter, tariff increases and new device commissions put pressure on the market. In the second half of the year, supply - demand drivers were weak, and the price fluctuated widely between 4400 - 5000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there was a significant rebound driven by concentrated PTA maintenance and PXN rebound [9]. Chapter 2: PTA Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 PTA Supply Situation - PTA投产高峰结束, 2026年无新增产能: As of the end of 2024, the global PTA capacity was about 110 million tons, expected to reach 116.25 million tons/year in 2025. Asia accounted for over 90%, and China accounted for over 78% of Asian capacity. In 2025 - 2030, new global PTA capacity will mainly come from Asia and the Middle East. China's PTA capacity will see a significant reduction in new capacity after 2025, with no clear new capacity planned for 2026 [13][14]. - PTA低开工、低利润；主动检修平衡供需: In 2025, due to over - capacity and losses, many PTA devices were shut down for maintenance. The average domestic PTA device operating rate from January to November was 77.9%, 1.98% lower than the previous year. In 2025, the PTA processing fee was at a low level, and device shutdowns and production cuts increased to balance supply and demand [18][21]. - 国外新装置投产压制, PTA出口量缩减: In 2025, China's PTA exports declined significantly. From January to October, the cumulative export was 309.64 million tons, a 16.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The main reason was the slowdown in overseas polyester production and the progress of PTA certification in India. However, there were some increases in exports to emerging markets such as the UAE and Russia [28][29]. - PTA社会库存降低: By the end of December, PTA social inventory was 3.19 million tons, a significant decrease due to increased maintenance and high polyester production growth [32]. 2.2 PTA Demand Analysis - 内需内生动力仍不足: In 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China showed a mild recovery. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales reached 1.2053 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase. However, in 2026, although there were policies to support consumption, the slowdown in economic growth and the decrease in residents' income and expenditure would still restrict domestic demand [36][40]. - 外需结构性分化: In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes affected textile and clothing exports. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of textile yarn and clothing exports were 1.8% and - 3% respectively. The export market showed a clear differentiation of "growth in textiles and decline in clothing". In 2026, textile exports may show positive signs, while clothing exports will still face pressure [43][46]. - 聚酯产能扩张: From 2016 - 2024, China's polyester capacity had an average annual growth rate of 7.09%. In 2025, 3.5 million tons of new polyester capacity was added, and in 2026, about 4 million tons of new capacity is planned. The main products for new capacity in 2026 are filaments and staple fibers [47][49]. - 聚酯开工率高、出口增速高，利润压缩: In 2025, the average polyester operating rate was around 90%. From January to November, polyester production was 72.87 million tons, a 7.56% year - on - year increase. Polyester products were mainly exported, but the industry's profit was compressed. In 2026, the new polyester capacity growth rate will still be high, and profits are expected to remain low, but the average operating rate can maintain resilience [52][66]. Chapter 3: Upstream Analysis 3.1 Crude Oil Situation - 原油供需概况: In 2025, international oil prices trended downward. The global crude oil market faced weak demand and increased production. IEA adjusted the supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC+ started to increase production in April 2025 and paused in the first quarter of 2026. The return of OPEC+'s remaining 1.65 million barrels/day of production in 2026 will be an important variable. Non - OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels/day in 2026, with certain increases in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, while US production is under pressure [68][78]. - 原油消费情况: IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2026, petrochemical raw materials will be the core source of demand growth. China's crude oil demand will still increase, with petrochemical raw materials being the main growth source [89][97]. - 原油供需结论: Most institutions predict that the growth of crude oil demand in 2026 will be around 1 million barrels/day. The supply surplus in the 2026 crude oil market is a relatively certain prediction, but the oil price may be more resilient than in 2025, and 2026 is likely to be a bottom - building year for oil prices [98]. 3.2 PX Situation - PX产能投放进入尾声: In 2025, the global PX capacity was about 80.68 million tons/year, with Asia dominating the supply. China contributed over 90% of the new global capacity. In 2025, there were no new PX devices in China, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is 2.6 million tons. If the Yulong Petrochemical device is put into operation, the total capacity will approach 47 million tons [99][100]. - 中国开工率偏高，亚洲开工率低: In 2025, China's average PX operating rate was 87.1%, higher than in 2024, due to sufficient raw material supply and good short - process profits. The Asian PX operating rate was mostly between 78% - 80% due to frequent maintenance of old devices in Japan and South Korea, diversion of aromatic raw materials for oil blending, and slow progress of PX device construction in emerging markets [103]. - 中国产量微增，亚洲产量降低: In 2025, China's PX production remained stable, with a 0.1% year - on - year increase from January to October. Asian PX production decreased by 2.4% year - on - year from January to October, mainly due to production declines in regions other than China [107]. - 中国进口量增加: From January to October 2025, China's PX imports were 7.8569 million tons, a 3.85% year - on - year increase. The main trading partners were South Korea, Japan, etc. [111]. - PX社会库存下降: By December 27, PX social inventory was 4.07 million tons [114]. - 调油利润偏低迷；PXN改善: In 2026, there will be more new PX capacity, but it will be concentrated in the second half of the year. PXN will continue to improve in the first half of the year and face pressure in the second half [120]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - 行情展望: In 2026, the crude oil market will still face a supply surplus, but the oil price may be more resilient. PX will see more new capacity in the second half of the year, with PXN facing pressure. PTA will have no new capacity, but the output of new devices in 2025 will gradually increase, and concentrated maintenance will still be the main means to balance the market. Polyester will have a high new capacity growth rate, with low profits, but the operating rate can maintain resilience [121]. - 投资策略: In the first half of 2026, seize low - level long - position opportunities; in the second half, follow crude oil operations [122].