瓶片短纤数据日报-20260107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US raided Venezuela, escalating geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds. The futures market is leading the price discovery mechanism, and although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported. In 2026, the market is expected to remain tight, driven by India's new PTA production capacity and organic demand growth. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. Domestically, PTA maintains high operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread still supports aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high, with an increasing market hoarding willingness, and the basis has strengthened rapidly. Although polyester demand has weakened seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5030 to 5080, with a change of 50; MEG domestic price rose from 3640 to 3666, up 26; PTA closing price increased from 5046 to 5150, a rise of 104; MEG closing price went up from 3732 to 3838, an increase of 106; 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 45; short fiber basis increased from 38 to 40, up 2; 2 - 3 spread increased from 4 to 6, up 10; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6; 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber price difference increased from 1235 to 1280, up 45; East China water bottle chip price increased by 61; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price increased by 61; carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased by 61; outer disk water bottle chip price increased from 795 to 800, up 5; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 486 to 495, up 10; T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10450 to 10500, up 50; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3940 to 3945, up 5; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged; cotton 328 price increased from 15475 to 15520, up 45; polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1234 to 1187, down 47; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7215 to 7210, down 5; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 495 to 438, down 56; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged [2]. 2. Market Conditions - Short fiber: The short fiber main futures rose 38 to 6532. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants fluctuated slightly, and traders' prices followed the futures. Downstream purchasing intention was low, while the replenishment of futures and spot merchants increased, and the on-site transactions were okay. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi-gloss natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6430 - 6650 yuan for cash on delivery and tax included self-pickup, 6550 - 6770 yuan in the North China market for cash on delivery and tax included delivery, and 6450 - 6680 yuan in the Fujian market for cash on delivery and tax included delivery [2]. - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6110 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures were running warmly, the cost-side support increased, most of the supply-side quotations were raised, the market negotiation atmosphere was relatively dull, downstream end-users restocked for rigid demand, and the market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]. 3. Industry Load and Production and Sales - The direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a decrease of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 53.00% to 77.00%, an increase of 24.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [2][3].