铁矿石，后市高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Thanks to short - term favorable factors, iron ore prices are at a high level, but supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of steel mills [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Short - term Favorable Factors Supporting Iron Ore Prices - The structural contradiction in the spot market remains unsolved. Although the inventory at 47 domestic ports has exceeded 167 million tons, the inventory of available varieties has dropped to a very low level, so the total inventory contradiction has not affected the market [3] - Recently, the prices of resource - related varieties have been strong, especially copper and silver. Iron ore, with the strongest financial attributes among ferrous metals, has been boosted by the rise in resource prices [3] - The variety arbitrage logic provides support. The current black - metal positions still favor iron ore long positions and short positions in other varieties, which is also beneficial to the iron ore price trend [3] - The restocking expectation of steel mills is being realized. The inventory in steel mills has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the spot trading volume at ports has also increased, leading to an improvement in iron ore demand [3] Limited Improvement Space in Demand - At the beginning of the new year, steel mills started to resume production, and iron ore demand improved. The latest daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore were 2.2743 million tons and 2.8067 million tons respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.0085 million tons and 0.0063 million tons [4] - However, the improvement space of iron ore demand is limited. On one hand, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills is still large. The profit - making ratio among 247 steel mills is 38.10%. On the other hand, the downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which restricts the production - increasing motivation of steel mills [4] - The relatively positive aspect is that as the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills have the motivation to restock. In the past five years, the average inventory in steel mills before the festival increased by about 16.3 million tons, and restocking was mostly concentrated in the four weeks before the festival, which will form short - term support for iron ore demand and prices [4] High Supply Pressure - The arrival volume at domestic ports has recovered as expected. The latest value at 47 domestic ports is 28.247 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level this year [5] - After the year - end shipment rush, the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high, but the global iron ore shipment volume is still higher than the same period last year. The cumulative global iron ore shipments in December increased by 13.74 million tons and 19.55 million tons respectively compared with the previous month and the same period last year, and the floating inventory is high, so the arrival volume at ports will remain relatively high [5] - The port iron ore inventory has continuously reached new highs. The latest inventory at 47 domestic ports and the number of ships at ports are 167.2179 million tons and 109 respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.1135 million tons and 14 respectively. The total inventory contradiction has not been alleviated, and the de - stocking pressure is still significant [5] - In the long term, more new production capacity will be put into use in 2026. Under a relatively neutral expectation, the supply increment may exceed 60 million tons, which will exacerbate the loose supply pattern and put pressure on iron ore prices [6]