华泰证券今日早参-20260107

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The report anticipates a slight decline in actual GDP growth to approximately 4.5% year-on-year in Q4, with an annual growth rate of around 5% for the year [2] - Domestic demand is expected to remain weak, while export resilience is projected to continue, supported by reduced tariff disruptions and global cyclical improvements [2] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring fiscal expansion in Q1 of the current year to support the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2: Fixed Income and Consumption Trends - High travel activity during the New Year period indicates strong consumer sentiment, with a notable recovery in inbound tourism and a narrowing decline in automotive consumption [3] - The real estate sector shows slight recovery in transaction heat, although year-on-year figures remain weaker than in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Industrial production indicators show a widening decline in freight volume, with most production rates remaining weak, particularly in the steel and chemical sectors [3] Group 3: Real Estate and REITs Development - The introduction of 30 REITs-related policies marks the official entry of C-REITs into a comprehensive development era for "infrastructure + commercial real estate" [4] - Commercial real estate REITs are expected to significantly enhance asset liquidity and facilitate value reassessment for related enterprises [4] - Companies deeply involved in commercial real estate and management services are likely to benefit from these developments [4] Group 4: ETF Market Trends - By the end of 2025, China's ETF market surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs dominating the market, reaching a total scale of 4.24 trillion yuan, a 42% increase [5] - There is a notable divergence in the performance of broad-based ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with the latter experiencing continuous inflows [5] Group 5: Aerospace and Aviation Manufacturing - The report emphasizes that civil aviation will become a significant growth area for China's aerospace manufacturing, driven by the scaling up of C919 aircraft deliveries [6] - The development of domestic aviation materials is expected to lower procurement costs and enhance supply chain capabilities for airlines [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Specific Companies - The report initiates coverage on Jizhi Technology (极智嘉-W) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 36.39 HKD, highlighting its strong growth potential in the flexible warehousing sector [7] - Wanwu Xinxing (万物新生) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 7.64 USD, recognized for its comprehensive integration in the second-hand recycling industry [10] - Huaming Equipment (华明装备) receives a "Buy" rating with a target price of 29.50 CNY, benefiting from global power grid investments and expected rapid growth in overseas markets [10]