有色板块大涨，沪镍不锈钢跟随上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The nickel and stainless steel markets showed strong performance on January 6, 2026. Although the fundamentals still indicate high inventory and oversupply, with frequent favorable policies from Indonesia and the metals being in a long - term bottom - shock period, they are likely to attract the attention of profit - seeking funds from the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, and are expected to remain strong [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On January 6, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,100 yuan/ton and closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.13% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 738,334 (+371,441) lots, and the open interest was 131,481 (-3,248) lots. The overnight LME nickel rose 3.16% to $17,290/ton. The supply contraction expectation was the core driving force for price increase, and the strengthening of the outer market and the overall recovery of the non - ferrous sector provided a good external environment [1]. - Nickel Ore: The overall nickel ore resources in the market are limited, and the price remains stable. The Benguet mine in the Philippines is tendering for 1.25 nickel ore, and the mine maintains a bullish attitude. In January 2026 (Phase I), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - Spot: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 147,700 yuan/ton, up 5,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 39,388 (+964) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,546 (+192) tons [2]. - Strategy - The fundamentals still show high inventory and oversupply, but with frequent favorable policies from Indonesia and the metal being in a long - term bottom - shock period, it is expected to remain strong. - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On January 6, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 13,395 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,101 (+51,971) lots, and the open interest was 63,161 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong performance of Shanghai nickel, it broke through the upper limit of the previous shock range, showing a cost - driven upward trend. Although the increase was less than that of Shanghai nickel, the trend was stable, with good volume - price coordination and improved technical patterns [3]. - Spot: The continuous strengthening of the futures market boosted market confidence, resulting in good market transactions and higher spot quotes. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 50 - 250 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to continue the shock - upward trend, and investors can consider adding positions on dips. In the medium - to - long term, beware of the risk of a high - level correction. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and the downstream inventory situation. - Unilateral: Neutral; no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].