看涨情绪高涨，碳酸锂再次涨停

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The short - term increase is too large, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of a pullback [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 132,600 yuan/ton and closed at 137,940 yuan/ton. The closing price increased by 8.99% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,237 lots, and the open interest was 534,999 lots (the previous day's open interest was 515,292 lots). The current basis was - 9,600 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,141 lots, a change of 2,860 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 120,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 - 130,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,680 US dollars/ton, an increase of 113 US dollars/ton [2] Policy Impact - On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document clarifying the subsidy policy for automobile trade - ins in 2026, which significantly improved the expectation of the decline in new - energy vehicle demand in the first quarter. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", which affected small and medium - sized mines in lithium mica production areas such as Yichun, Jiangxi, and strengthened the market's expectation of supply tightening [2] Inventory and Production - The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,667 tons, a decrease of 184 tons; the downstream inventory was 38,998 tons, a decrease of 894 tons; other inventories were 52,940 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow, and the weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [2] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. Options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [3][4]