贵金属日报：地缘催化下贵金属持续强势-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, which may increase the demand for gold investment and lead to a slightly stronger and volatile gold price in the near term [1][8] - Silver prices are relatively stronger than gold due to geopolitical risks and ongoing physical shortages, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Trump administration is discussing various options to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free association, and military means, and this issue is considered a national security priority by the White House [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 6, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 994.02 yuan/gram, closed at 1004.98 yuan/gram, up 1.00% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 lots and an open interest of 129,725 lots. Overnight, it closed at 1008.74 yuan/gram, up 0.37% from the afternoon close [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 19,452.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.60% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 1,929,943 lots and an open interest of 277,149 lots. Overnight, it closed at 19,820 yuan/kilogram, up 1.89% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 6, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.714%, also unchanged [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On January 6, 2026, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 1,662 lots and the short position decreased by 2,686 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 61.30% to 308,118 lots [4] - In the Ag2604 contract, the long position increased by 19,204 lots and the short position increased by 21,768 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 168.34% to 2,896,340 lots [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 1,065.13 tons, while the silver ETF position decreased by 90 tons to 16,354 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 6, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,012.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 51.66, down 5.25% from the previous day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.10, up 2.03% [6] Fundamental Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 44,252 kilograms, up 0.55% from the previous day. The silver trading volume was 876,640 kilograms, up 33.34% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,000 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold is expected to trade in a range of 990 - 1015 yuan/gram, and the overall trend is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] - Silver is expected to trade in a range of 19,000 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [8] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]