新能源及有色金属日报：现货市场供应依旧偏紧-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the domestic smelter comprehensive smelting loss expands, the supply pressure decreases, and the fundamentals are bullish. The zinc valuation is low, the future consumption is optimistic, the interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and the re - inflation has not yet been reflected [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,340 yuan/ton with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,260 yuan/ton with a premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On January 6, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,775 yuan/ton, closed at 24,295 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,175 lots, and the open interest was 96,459 lots. The highest price was 24,420 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,775 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of January 6, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 105,775 tons, down 75 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The spot market supply is tight, the downstream is reluctant to buy at high prices, the domestic smelting loss increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The fundamentals are favorable, the zinc valuation is low, and the future consumption is expected to be good [1][5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]